One week after their surprise invasion of Aleppo, rebel groups have forced the Syrian army to withdraw from the city of Hama 130 kilometres to the south. Hama, the country’s fourth-largest city, had been under the control of the Assad regime for the duration of the civil war that began in 2011. Commentators see the regime under mounting pressure.
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Historical bastion of Assad opponents
With the capture of Hama the situation will get very tricky for Assad, Avvenire predicts:
“The ‘rebel city’, which is now back under the control of the insurgents, recorded between 10,000 and 40,000 fatalities – according to various estimates – after the 27 days of carpet bombing ordered [in 1982] by Hafiz al-Assad [Bashar al-Assad’s father and predecessor] to turn the Sunnis’ ‘den’ into ‘scorched earth’ … If Hama is the historic centre of the uprising against the Assad regime, a push targeting Homs 40 kilometres to the south – which was the epicentre of the brutally suppressed demonstrations during the civil war in 2011 – could deal a near-fatal blow to the regime.”
Will the rebel army set its sights on Israel?
Damascus will not be the rebels’ final objective, Israeli-based political scientist Abbas Gallyamov fears on Facebook:
“The only way the motley coalition currently fighting the Syrian dictator can avoid falling apart over internal conflicts as soon as they’ve taken power is to expand outwards. Insofar as Erdoğan has the leverage to influence the situation, he may well try to organise this expansion – including against Israel. Just read all he has said over the last year. Encouraged by the speed with which they have defeated Assad’s army and the last remnants of Hezbollah, Ankara-led Syrian opposition forces may decide to ‘liberate Palestine’.”
Russia losing ground
in Syria, notes Dzerkalo Tyshnya:
“Weakness is despised in the Middle East. The shameful departure of the Russians from Aleppo (as well as rumours about the evacuation of their military and diplomatic personnel from Damascus) ruined within two days the image of a respectable power that Moscow has cultivated in the region for a decade. In Iranian social media, there is even talk of ‘betrayal’ by Russia. If Tehran’s role in saving Bashar al-Assad’s regime ‘on the ground’ becomes more obvious, there will be a further redistribution of some economically attractive spheres of influence in its favour after the end of the active combat phase in Syria.”
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