Two months before Bangladesh heads to the polls for the first time since the fall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, the most established party still in the race, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), is facing deep uncertainty as its two top figures are either gravely ill or stuck abroad.
BNP chair Begum Khaleda Zia, a former prime minister, is battling serious complications involving her heart, liver and lungs and is expected to be flown to London from Dhaka for treatment, while her son Tarique Rahman – the party’s de facto leader – remains in self-imposed exile despite expectations he would return after Hasina’s ousting.
Analysts warn the leadership vacuum could weaken the BNP’s grip on its strongholds and undermine its ability to seize the opening created by the exclusion of Hasina’s Awami League from the race, with Rahman’s absence being especially damaging as he is seen as crucial to energising the party’s core supporters.
“What could have been a better time for Rahman to return to Bangladesh than when his mother is ailing,” said Sreeradha Datta, professor of international relations at O.P. Jindal Global University. She noted that he had also not been conspicuous in media interviews.
Rahman had been expected to return to Bangladesh after the fall of the Awami League government last August, as corruption cases initiated by the previous administration are believed to have fallen through, removing earlier obstacles to his re-entry.