Fears of wider Middle East conflict mount following deadly pager explosions in Lebanon

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Fears of an escalation into a regional war in the Middle East have intensified following two days of deadly blasts from hand-held devices targeting militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The explosions killed at least 32 people and injured about 3,500, including children.

Israeli officials have not commented on the blasts, but sources said Israel’s spy agency Mossad was responsible.

Observers have painted a grim picture on the latest developments, saying an expansion of the conflict appears more probable than ever before.

“We are certainly closer than we have been to an escalation,” said Dr Eyal Mayroz, a senior lecturer specialising in peace and conflict studies at the University of Sydney.

“The fear is that if a war breaks out between Hezbollah and Israel, Iran and its proxies will certainly join in.”

The coordinated detonations from Hezbollah’s pagers and walkie-talkies played out alongside the war in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran.

Hezbollah has vowed revenge, saying it is carrying out an investigation and that Israel would receive “its fair punishment”.

COULD THERE BE A SECOND FRONT?

History professor James Gelvin from the University of California, Los Angeles, said indications show Israel is increasingly likely to open a second front in the conflict.

“I think Israel fully well realises that (the pager blasts) are not going to be an effective countermeasure against Hezbollah,” he told CNA’s Asia First on Thursday (Sep 19).

He added they could be precautionary measures to first cripple Hezbollah’s communication network and its command and control capabilities.

“This was probably preparatory to… perhaps an invasion of southern Lebanon and the attempt to push Hezbollah back from the border,” he said.

Earlier this week, the security cabinet of Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made the safe return of residents to the north of the country an official war goal.

More than 60,000 people have been displaced from their homes near Israel’s border with Lebanon since hostilities began almost a year ago.

On the other side, hundreds of Hezbollah operatives have been killed and close to 100,000 Lebanese civilians have been evacuated from border regions.

BRINK OF A REGIONAL WAR

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant on Tuesday declared a “new phase” in the war against regional Islamist groups, saying troops will be diverted to the Lebanese border.

Prof Gelvin said that aside from securing the border, Israel likely wants to destroy Hezbollah’s missile capabilities to put a stop to constant rocket attacks.

Hezbollah has been launching near-daily rockets and drones on northern Israel since Oct 8 last year, in solidarity with Hamas, a day after the latter’s unprecedented incursion into Israel ignited the current war.

Dr Mayroz said it would be “crazy” to escalate the situation. He pointed out that while Hezbollah’s communication networks may have been crippled by the pager blasts, its aerial arsenal has not.

“Hezbollah’s military capability, especially through guided missiles – (some say) over 100,000 of them – has not been crippled. It’s anyone’s guess how long it will take for Hezbollah to react, but such a reaction will be coming,” he told CNA938.

Prof Gelvin also cautioned it “will be impossible to destroy” Hezbollah, which has extensive reach within Lebanese society. The armed group has seats in the government and runs social services including schools and hospitals.

Observers said neither Israel nor Lebanon can afford an all-out war. Israel cannot fight Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran at the same time, they said.

A wider conflict will also impact Lebanon’s already dire financial situation. It is currently going through one of its worst economic crises, with poverty tripling over the past decade, according to the World Bank.

HOW CAN THE CONFLICT DE-ESCALATE?

Hezbollah is only likely to stop its rocket attacks on Israel when a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas is reached, said observers.

“If the situation is to be calmed down, it could come only through a ceasefire, and then Hezbollah would stand down,” said Prof Gelvin.
 

The United States has been attempting to broker a truce but proposal after proposal has been rejected by both sides. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Tuesday made his 10th trip to the Middle East since the start of the war.

However, Prof Gelvin said the US “doesn’t have very much leverage” over Israel, and Dr Mayroz called it a Catch-22 situation.

“The Israelis will only accept a ceasefire if it’s temporary. Hamas will only accept a ceasefire if it’s permanent. So, we have a series of contradictions here and they both can’t have it their way,” said Prof Gelvin.

On the risks of a wider war, Dr Mayroz said neighbouring nations such as Jordan and Syria are unlikely to take part but would instead try to de-escalate the situation.

Observers said a wider concern has emerged from the pager blasts as investigators race to unravel the mystery of how Hezbollah’s devices came to be rigged.

Tony Loughran, director of risk consultancy ZeroRisk International, said the blasts could inspire copycat attacks or open up a new approach for terrorist operations.

“Anything that carries a battery has the potential to harness a data board and explosives. The biggest concern is that you don’t need to mount a large, full-scale attack… if you can put these regular pagers on individuals,” he said.

“This can put a strain on the system with a mass casualty event. Everything comes to a grinding halt and causes absolute pandemonium. So anywhere there’s a pager, anywhere there’s an electronic device, there’s going to be a lot of questions asked.”