The moon’s dimming light: China sees lacklustre mooncake sales as consumers refuse to bite

SINGAPORE: Instead of buying mooncakes this Mid-Autumn Festival, freelancer Ms Liu Siqi decided to save money and bake her own at a workshop in Guangzhou, before reuniting with family members in her hometown, Foshan.

“I was considering whether to buy them especially since Mid-Autumn is a special period,” Ms Liu, 23, told CNA. “But I don’t find them particularly delicious and feel that the holiday mark-up is too high.”  

With her eight handmade mooncakes, the recent graduate remarked that she could save up to four yuan (US$0.56) a piece.

That’s even as mooncake prices have fallen this year. 

Data company Mashangying researched that the average market price has dropped to 83.36 yuan from 85.69 yuan in 2023. 

The China Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association also found that the price of mainstream mooncake gift boxes this year is more affordable, with the most concentrated price range between 70 and 220 yuan, and most of the affordable gift boxes are below 60 yuan.

But it seems that the once-luminous autumnal pastry might have lost its shine among buyers, with companies still being hit by lacklustre sales despite the lower price point.

“We always (purchase) so many mooncakes during Mid-Autumn, and this year is no different,” Ms Liu said.

“(This year) I wondered, if I brought home another (store-bought) box, would my family really need it?”

Observers say it reflects new spending habits in China, especially among younger consumers, as people become more rational and discerning with their spending habits and purchases. 

In 2019, China’s highly competitive mooncake market was valued at a whopping 20 billion yuan, but sales have been on the decline since the pandemic and retailers have continued to struggle. 

While mooncake sales in 2023 surpassed pre-COVID levels, generating more 22 billion yuan, the forecast this year is dimmed. 

Mooncake production is estimated to be about 300,000 tonnes, down from 320,000 tonnes in 2023. Meanwhile, sales are projected to drop to 2019’s level, according to a market trend report released last month by the China Bakery and Confectionery Industry Association. 

SIMPLICITY OVER LUXURY 

In China, mooncakes are more than just a dessert. Regarded as a symbol of luxury and extravagance, they are traditionally given to family, friends and relatives during the annual Mid Autumn Festival, which fell on Tuesday (Sep 17). 

The majority of Chinese consumers have become “more pragmatic”, said Ms Olivia Plotnick, founder of Wai Social, a Shanghai-based social media marketing agency – which is “in line with broader market trends.” 

“Rising economic pressures and changing consumer values are driving a greater focus on practicality, affordability and real value,” Ms Plotnick told CNA.  

“When it comes to traditional products such as mooncakes, this manifests in (consumers) choosing simplicity and meaningfulness over luxury.”

Like many other frugal shoppers, Ms Liu says she’s feeling the pinch.

“Everyone is being more budget-conscious. It’s quite normal for people to scale down their spending in such situations,” she said. “I think it’s due to the overall economic situation, which isn’t great this year, including my personal financial situation, which is not as good as last year.”

The falling mooncake sales come amid China’s sluggish economy, though some experts noted that the ongoing anti-corruption drive and quality concerns also contributed to the decline.

A nationwide crackdown on bribery and corporate gifting affected sales this year, said Julien Lapka, founder of Inner Chapter, a brand strategy and insight studio headquartered in Shanghai. 

In 2022, four bodies of China’s central government, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Commerce and the State Administration for Market Regulation, tightened regulations on the sale of mooncakes. 

Boxes priced at more than 500 yuan would be monitored, Chinese officials said, while mooncake companies were encouraged to produce high-quality products at reasonable prices. 

“The crackdowns obviously had a pretty big impact,” Mr Lapka told CNA. 

“That’s nothing new, but definitely if you think of industries like tech and property developers, these are two industries that have been hit pretty badly this year. I think that would account for things.”

And it isn’t just prices and overly extravagant boxes and packaging that companies have been cutting back on. 

Calories count for a lot, especially among younger, health conscious buyers. A traditional baked lotus paste mooncake, with one salted egg yolk, contains around 790 calories. With double yolks, it’s more than 890 calories.

Research released by market consultancy firm iiMedia Research found that more than 80 per cent of Chinese consumers surveyed were willing to buy healthy mooncakes while 50 per cent favoured new innovations, such as low-sugar, low-fat and low-oil varieties.

“Chinese consumers have been looking to eat healthier and there’s been a lot of desire to have lower sugar, lower fat mooncakes but the market (in general) hasn’t necessarily responded to that,” Mr Lapka said.

While food and beverages that incorporate traditional Chinese medicine ingredients have become increasingly in demand, only a select few in China have done so to boost sales and court younger, more health-conscious buyers.

Getting in on the action are some traditional Chinese medicine hospitals – such as Ningbo Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine – which have launched several medicinal mooncake varieties. TCM companies such as Tongren Tang, Dong’e Ejiao, and Sanjiu have ventured into mooncakes as well.

Beijing Daoxiangcun, one of the oldest bakeries in China, launched its own healthy mooncakes made with less sugar and buckwheat flour. 

Another iconic Chinese brand Wufangzhai, famous for its glutinous rice dumplings, introduced low sugar mooncakes, containing zero sugar. 

But Mr Lapka believes it’s not enough.

“There is a bit of a lag between what people were looking for and what brands have been offering,” he adds. 

A RETURN TO HERITAGE AND TRADITION 

With the change in spending habits especially among younger Chinese consumers, appetite this year has also shifted to traditional flavours and heritage brands over flashy limited edition products, experts say. 

“We’re seeing a lot more interest and positive commentary online around mooncakes that tap into much more traditional formats and flavours,” Mr Lapka said.

The trend was particularly evident in regional variations, such as pork mooncakes in Shanghai or spicy beef flavoured Chongqing-style mooncakes, he added.

“Dipping into nostalgia through food is very comforting, and offers a sense of control (for consumers),” Mr Lapka said. 

Luxury hotels, which once used mooncakes as a way to showcase grandeur, have also shifted their sales strategies. 

“Over the past two years, we’ve seen the top hotels trying to get back to traditions, making it less about design fads or (over-the-top) gifts,” Mr Lapka said. 

“Hotels are less about trading on their five-star luxury, but actually pairing up with chefs so that there is a depth and a strong culinary element to the offerings.”

Collaborations such as The Peninsula Hotels’ collaboration with Michelin-starred chef Tang Chi Keung, and The Ritz Carlton teaming up with Paul Pairet of Ultraviolet, have been a draw during this year’s Mid-Autumn Festival. 

“(But a majority of) the market just hasn’t caught up. So if you’re not enticing people with what they’re looking for, then sales do fall.”

AN EYE ON THE ENVIRONMENT

When it comes to mooncakes, Mid-Autumn in China has been a competition for the fanciest, most elaborate style of packaging, with hotels and retailers vying to win over consumers with intricate boxes that double up as jewellery holders, and bright, lacquered packaging. 

But to the new generation of young and eco-conscious Chinese buyers, less is more – and the over the top, excessive packaging for mooncakes just doesn’t cut it. 

“I don’t want to buy commercial mooncakes because I care about the environment,” said Ms Liu. “There’s too much plastic packaging in the mooncake market, which I don’t like or agree with.”

Baking her own mooncakes, she adds, can help avoid that. “I can choose to use reusable containers, or if I must have packaging, I can keep it minimal,” she said. 

A Global Times article citing 2021 data from the State Administration for Market Regulation, said packaging waste accounts for about 30 to 40 per cent of the urban household garbage, and most of the packaging waste was generated from excessive packaging.

Chinese regulators in 2022 revised the standards of food and cosmetic packaging requirements to reduce excessive packaging. 

Mr Lapka said there’s “definitely been a lot of discussion” surrounding big and bulky mooncake boxes and the “sort of understanding that so much waste gets generated.” 

Traditional mooncake shops “don’t use much packaging”, Mr Lapka noted. “The mooncakes get placed in these rather flimsy cardboards, almost like takeaway boxes, so they’re not over-packaged.”

“I haven’t (really) seen any of the big brands really follow suit and try to do something quite clever with more minimal packaging,” he added. 

The biggest takeaway from this year’s Mid-Autumn rush, he says, is that Chinese buyers today are now more discerning with their mooncakes, looking for “meaning” in their buys. 

“In the past, people have been driven by the need to show grandeur and success and sort of gravitas,” he said.

“But now, they are looking more at what traditionally (the Mid-Autumn holiday) means… at more traditional crafts, flavours and ingredients that are being brought in, and (consumers) are filtering the category through this lens.”

As for Ms Liu, she is considering a shift away from store-bought mooncakes in the future.

“If I have the chance next year, I’d consider making them myself again, as it’s a different feeling when you make them yourself and share them with your family. I enjoy having new experiences like this.”

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