JAKARTA: As parts of Southeast Asia reel from the effects of deadly flooding over recent days, Indonesia faces a significantly higher death toll than its regional neighbours.
As of Sunday (Dec 7), the archipelago recorded at least 940 deaths, 276 people missing and around 5,000 people injured, in one of the deadliest disasters to hit the country in the past few years.
Thailand and Malaysia, which were also hit by the after-effects of Cyclone Senyar, reported death tolls of around 276 and three respectively.
And while the rare storm that formed in the Malacca Strait has largely passed, Indonesia continues to struggle heavily with the aftermath.
Experts told CNA that the higher number of casualties in Indonesia cannot just be explained away by its larger population of over 280 million. Thailand has a population of around 71 million and Malaysia has a population of around 34 million.
Instead, a mix of extensive deforestation, poor spatial planning, weak disaster preparedness and geographical vulnerability contributed to the devastation, all compounded by the effects of climate change.
“Indonesia is highly susceptible to landslides and flash floods, particularly because of its tectonic and geological conditions and its highly unstable atmospheric conditions,” said Dwikorita Karnawati, an environmental geology and disaster mitigation expert from the University of Gadjah Mada.
“Even without external factors … it is already fragile, let alone if there is land clearing and there is inappropriate land use.”
Indonesia sits at the convergence of major tectonic plates making it part of the “Ring of Fire,” vulnerable to heavy tropical rainfall and natural disasters.
And as analysts warn that climate change will lead to more frequent weather anomalies in the years to come, they say the government must be better prepared and train people to avoid the worst.
UNIQUE GEOGRAPHY AND TOPOGRAPHY
Cyclone Senyar formed in the north of the Malacca Strait, said Dwikorita, who was also the head of Indonesia’s Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) from 2017 until last month.
This is an anomaly, she said. Such a cyclone rarely happens along the equator, but climate change has warmed the atmosphere in the area, leading to more intense rainfall.
Dwikorita said the cyclone is an atmospheric or natural phenomenon that begins with a low-pressure area. It started in Indonesia’s Sumatra on Nov 26.
“(The cyclone) moved from the western region of West Sumatra to the northwest of West Sumatra, then towards Aceh and then North Sumatra. It went on land,” she said.
Cyclones usually do not make landfall, she added, and if they do, they will weaken.
Typically, if the cyclone is at sea and people only get the tail of the cyclone, they experience indirect, less damaging impacts in the form of heavy rain, said Dwikorita.
However, this was not the case with Cyclone Senyar.
“This is on land. That’s why the impact on the ground is also devastating,” she said.
Dwikorita said that land in Sumatra is formed by tectonic plates, leaving it vulnerable to landslides and flash floods, while Peninsular Malaysia has a gentler topography, which is why it reported a significantly lower death toll.
She said most of Indonesia is formed by tectonic plates, so if a cyclone of a comparable nature were to hit elsewhere in the archipelago, the effects could be similar.
DEFORESTATION AND LAND CONVERSION
The dire situation is exacerbated by massive deforestation and land conversion in Sumatra, said analysts.
Deforestation has been happening massively in the past two decades, said Dwi Sawung, infrastructure and spatial planning campaign manager with environmental non-governmental organisation Walhi.
This has resulted in the soil losing its ability to absorb water, leading to flash floods and landslides.
Walhi recorded that between 2016 to 2025, about 1.4 million ha of forest in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra have been deforested.
This is due to the activities of about 631 companies which hold permits for mining, land use for oil palm plantations, geothermal, hydropower and micro-hydro activity.
The disasters in the three provinces hit the Bukit Barisan forest area, which in North Sumatra covers Batang Toru, home to the critically endangered Tapanuli orangutan, as well as North, Central and South Tapanuli, Walhi noted.
Kiki Taufik, global head of Indonesia Forest campaign at Greenpeace Indonesia, said that while some land conversion is done illegally, most of it is done legally with a permit from the government.
“So the forest ministry must take responsibility because it gave the permit, as well as the ministry of energy and mineral resources … which gave the mining permit, such as to mine gold,” said Kiki.
He added that the environment ministry must also be held accountable because they issue the environmental impact analysis (AMDAL),” which in Indonesia, is required for obtaining permits.
Mahawan Karuniasa, an environmental expert from the University of Indonesia said there are areas which should be free of buildings as they are disaster-prone.
However, there are settlements there, as many Indonesians economically rely on the land for their livelihood.
Regional and central governments have not been supervising spatial planning, he added.
DISASTER MITIGATION AND PREPAREDNESS
BMKG said they had given a warning about the cyclone before it landed.
Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani told lawmakers on Dec 1 that his agency had sent out a press release about a potential disaster in Aceh and West Sumatra following the cyclone, four days before it happened.
He also said it sent a press release about a potential disaster in North Sumatra tied to the cyclone eight days before it happened.
Mahawan from the University of Indonesia said BMKG often posts about potential disasters, and it wasn’t clear that this was a warning for a flood with an exceptional scale of impact.
“So, I think (a lack of) early warning systems is the reason why disaster preparedness is lacking,” said Mahawan.
What’s more, in Indonesia, the focus tends to be on volcanic disasters and tsunamis, not on hydrometeorological ones.
Mahawan noted that even in the capital Jakarta, which suffers from regular floods, those who disseminate the information are the people, not the government and that once a disaster occurs, most governments and people do not know what to do.
The speed of how aid is distributed or authorities reach out to the affected areas is slow, and the remoteness of certain areas makes it even harder for them to move once the roads are cut off, said Mahawan.
He said that the government could have deployed helicopters and hospital ships carrying aid even before the Sumatra disaster happened, given the information available, highlighting a lack of coordination.
“But this did not happen, and they only sent the hospital ships from Jakarta days after the floods,” said Dwi from Walhi, pointing out that the ships deployed from Jakarta could take days to land in the affected areas.
“Thus, much needs to be improved so people really know what will happen with the rainfall and the current weather.”
Dwi from Walhi compared this to the Philippines, which was recently hit by typhoon Fung-wong. Residents got a message to evacuate before the typhoon even made landfall.
Analysts also noted that the budget for Indonesia’s national disaster agency (BNPB), which is the main agency in charge of handling the floods, has been cut recently.
BNPB received a budget of about 4.39 trillion rupiah (US$263 million) in 2024.
But that has been cut to 2.01 trillion rupiah this year and 491 billion rupiah next year.
“So the disaster agency has limited resources,” said Mahawan.
LONG-TERM SOLUTIONS
While Indonesia’s geographical condition cannot be easily altered, there are certain things the government could do to prevent a disaster from happening again, said analysts.
This includes reviewing all the permits given to corporations for land conversion.
Authorities should hold the companies accountable and take them to court, said Kiki Taufik from Greenpeace Indonesia.
On Dec 4, Indonesia’s Forestry Minister Raja Juli Antoni told parliamentarians that 20 production forest permits covering 750,000 ha would be revoked following a review after the floods in Sumatra.
“We are awaiting President Prabowo Subianto’s approval to announce the revocation,” he said during a hearing at the House of Representatives.
Dwikorita from the University of Gadjah Mada also noted that if a region is deemed a dangerous place to live, people must move.
However, she acknowledged that this is not easy since many may have lived in the locations for decades.
The disaster agency and relevant institutions must also be given a larger budget so they can work more effectively and establish an effective warning system, said analysts.
“The budget decisions need to be addressed,” said Mahawan from the University of Indonesia.
“So, I think given this momentum, with the drastic increase in hydrometeorological disasters predicted in the future, in addition to having an early warning system, we need to improve disaster awareness and provide valid information with clear signals.”
Apart from preventing and preparing for disasters, the government must also coordinate better, noted Dwi from Walhi.
He said that due to the thick mud deposits covering massive areas, certain places are being cut off due to damaged roads and bridges. Houses and buildings are being swept away and fully covered in mud. The road to recovery would take months, he added.
“People cannot clean their homes alone. They need coordinated support, public kitchens, clean water, and proper logistics,” said Dwi.
Besides, he pointed out: “They say the disaster is a result of climate change. But climate change is actually also the result of humans.”