Across Japan, travel agencies specialising in the Chinese market have reported cancellations of group tours.
Kumamon, the local mascot of Japan’s Kumamoto Prefecture, dances with its assistant at a Christmas event at Kumamon Square.
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11 Dec 2025 05:05PM
KUMAMOTO, Japan: A wide-eyed, red-cheeked black bear draws a crowd at Kumamon Square, where it makes an appearance almost every day.
Kumamoto Prefecture’s local mascot, Kumanon, was created 15 years ago to attract tourists to the Kyushu region in southwestern Japan.
It has now become an international icon – and the most popular mascot of a country known for having thousands of them.
“I want to ask everyone a question: Where are you from?” Kumamon’s assistant asked the public in Mandarin at a recent appearance.
Overseas visitors make up roughly half of all guests at Kumamon Square, with a majority coming from Taiwan, Hong Kong and mainland China.
Kumamon’s playful exchanges with crowds come amid a diplomatic spat between Tokyo and Beijing, which has sparked fears that Japan’s travel sector could be affected.
China issued an advisory last month warning its citizens against travelling to Japan, after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested Tokyo could exercise its right to self-defence in the event of a Taiwan contingency.
But analysts say Japan’s broad appeal across diverse markets – along with strong domestic tourism – may soften the blow, particularly in regions less dependent on Chinese visitors.
Yoshie Yonekura, president of Carino Create – the firm that runs Kumanon Square – said that while the number of visitors from mainland China could drop as tensions rise, she believes overall numbers will remain steady.
“There is an increasing number (of visitors) from (other) countries, so I don’t feel there is much impact,” she added.
GROUP TOUR CANCELLATIONS
Across Japan, travel agencies specialising in the Chinese market have reported cancellations of group tours.
In Osaka, its tourism board said about 20 hotels have seen half or more of their reservations from Chinese guests cancelled.
Japanese think tank Nomura Research Institute has estimated that Japan’s economy could contract by 0.29 per cent if inbound tourism from China shrinks by 25 per cent over a year. This would likely impact the hospitality, transport and retail sectors.
But Kumamoto, riding a tourism wave and with no direct transport links to China, expects little fallout from the tensions.
“In 2024, there were 1.47 million (foreign visitors to Kumamoto). It’s the most ever. Compared to before COVID in 2018, it is 1.5 times more,” Kumamoto Prefecture governor Takashi Kimura told CNA.
Taiwanese and South Korean visitors formed the majority of foreign tourists to Kumamoto, with mainland Chinese visitors – 140,000 – making up just 10 per cent, he added.
Direct flights connect the prefecture with South Korea and Taiwan, with more flights to and from Taiwan set to be added this month.
In contrast, there are currently no direct flights between Kumamoto and Hong Kong or mainland China. Those services were suspended earlier this year – before the spat – with carriers citing reasons such as sluggish demand.
“I don’t think Kumamoto is hurt at all (from the dispute with China), compared to other prefectures,” noted Kimura.
Over in Omachi city in Nagano Prefecture, a popular base for outdoor activities, Taiwanese tourists form the largest group of foreign visitors.
Some travellers from Shanghai were also spotted, although they declined to speak to CNA.
One local hotel, which had hired a Chinese-speaking employee to attract guests from the mainland as well as Hong Kong and Taiwan, is uncertain about future demand.
“This region draws limited customers from the Chinese mainland, so at this point, there is not much impact,” said Yoshiko Endo, managing director of Tateyama Prince Hotel.
“Moving forward, they have a population that can support Japan’s tourism, so the (diplomatic spat) we are facing could make things difficult.”
DIVERSIFIED TOURISM BASE
Japan is expected to surpass last year’s annual record of 36.87 million foreign arrivals. From January to October this year, the country welcomed more than 35.5 million international tourists.
China is among the biggest sources of foreign visitors to Japan nationwide, with Tokyo, Kyoto and Osaka among the top destinations.
But some analysts say Japan’s ability to attract travellers from an increasingly diverse range of countries and regions will reduce the blowout.
While the Chinese market remains important to Japan, the number of Chinese visitors fell by 7 percentage points in the period from January to October this year, compared to the same period in 2019, noted Japan Tourism Research & Consultancy’s managing director Yasumasa Shimizu.
He also highlighted the strength of Japan’s domestic tourism industry.
Chinese nationals spent 1.7 trillion yen (US$10.9 billion) in 2024, accounting for only 5 per cent of total tourism expenditure in Japan, Shimizu said.
“I would like to point out that 76 per cent of Japanese tourism expenditure is supported by Japanese nationals,” he added.
As the autumn tourism season winds down, the crowds at Kumamon Square and around key cities in Japan suggest the country’s appeal remains robust – even as geopolitical tensions simmer.