Will China turn to Argentina to fill its farming import gap? Wheat and see

Argentinian firms have expressed an interest in boosting their agricultural shipments to China, welcome news for Beijing as it seeks alternative sources for its staple crops amid tension with the United States that appear unlikely to abate.

The first batch of wheat shipments from Argentina – one of the world’s largest exporters of the crop – will soon begin its journey to China, local economic newspaper Ambito Financiero reported on Monday. The paper did not provide an exact date of departure.

This would be the first wheat export from Argentina to China since the 1990s, and follows an authorisation issued in January for shipments of the crop to China. Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Fisheries called the approval “an important step for Argentina’s exports” in their press release at the time.

China is the world’s third-largest wheat importer, receiving 12.1 million tonnes in 2023 at a value of US$4.42 billion, according to customs data.

The United States ranks as China’s third-largest wheat supplier, shipping a total of 4.3 million tonnes in the first 10 months of this year and accounting for 10.3 per cent of the country’s total imports.

But as US president-elect Donald Trump threatens to slap 10 per cent tariffs on Chinese products – with sterner action potentially to come – analysts said this could present an opportunity for countries in the Global South to expand their trade with China, particularly when it comes to agriculture.