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Ret. colonel: US aid to Ukraine didn’t arrive in time to prevent Russia’s advances
02:27 – Source: CNN
- Antony Blinken met with Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv earlier Tuesday, where the Ukrainian president told the US secretary of state that Ukraine urgently needs more air defenses. Blinken, who said the long-awaited US military assistance has started arriving after months of delays, gave public remarks Tuesday evening at Kyiv Polytechnic Institute.
- The visit comes as Russia continues its push into northeastern Ukraine after making several major advances there over the past week – marking Moscow’s most significant gains since Kyiv’s forces recaptured Kharkiv in 2022. More than 7,000 people have been evacuated from the Kharkiv region, an official reported Tuesday.
- Chinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin to China later this week – the latest sign of their growing alignment as conflict devastates Gaza and Ukraine.
- Here’s how to help Ukraine during the third year of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Georgia’s president has called on protesters to use their vote in upcoming parliamentary elections to “reverse” the controversial foreign agents law passed by the country’s parliament on Tuesday.
President Salome Zourabichvili admitted to CNN’s Christiane Amanpour that there are “many concerns” after the parliament voted in favor of the controversial foreign agents law.
The president, who has previously accused Russia of trying to bolster its influence over the former Soviet country, told CNN that she will symbolically veto the law.
Due to the setup of Georgia’s parliamentary system, Zourabichvili holds mainly a figurehead role and her veto can be overruled by a simple parliamentary majority.
She called the law a complete “duplicate” of one passed by the Kremlin in 2012 which she said has been used to “completely oppress and repress the civil society” in Russia.
Russia is growing more and “more worried” by Georgia’s rapprochement with the European Union, Zourabichvili remarked, referencing the recent decision by the bloc to grant Georgia candidate status.
Although roughly 20% of Georgian territory is currently controlled by Russia following the 2008 invasion, Georgia has not been “diverted” from “following its European path,” the president added.
“It has not stopped us an inch and it will not stop us continuing,” she added.
Protesters during an opposition rally against the foreign agent bill outside the Georgian parliament in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Tuesday.
The White House has slammed Georgia’s controversial foreign agents legislation, warning that if enacted it would “compel” the US to reevaluate its relationship with the country.
“This weekend, we saw some of the largest protests in Georgia’s history, with tens of thousands of peaceful protesters, undeterred by intimidation tactics telling their government to oppose this legislation because they want a Euro-Atlantic future.
“We will see what the parliament does, but if this legislation passes, it will compel us to fundamentally reassess our relationship with Georgia.”
When pressed later on what she meant, Jean-Pierre would not elaborate. The legislation has already passed the country’s parliament, but its president has vowed to veto it. It’s unclear if that veto would then be overridden.
Georgia’s parliament passed the controversial law by 84 votes to 30, despite widespread domestic opposition to the move, which would require any organizations receiving more than 20% of funding from abroad to register as foreign agents.
Opponents say that the legislation was modeled after similar laws in Russia that the Kremlin has used to increasingly snuff out opposition and civil society.
The bill has become a cultural flashpoint in a country which, like Ukraine, finds itself caught between Russia and Europe. Polls show that an estimated 80% of Georgians want to join the EU, but Moscow’s geopolitical orbit has proven tough to exit.
Georgia’s parliament now has 10 days to send the bill to President Salome Zourabichvili. Zourabichvili will then have two weeks to veto it, but parliament can override her objection with a simple majority.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister has hailed ties with Serbia, traditionally seen as one of Europe’s more Russian-leaning states, on a visit to Belgrade. He was accompanied on the trip by Olena Zelenska, wife of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
In March 2022, Kyiv’s Serbian embassy closed with the United States and the United Kingdom accusing Serbian businesses of assisting Russia in circumventing sanctions.
Following Monday’s meeting between Foreign Minister Kuleba and Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic the embassy is set to be reopened.
“We are grateful to the Serbian president for agreeing to hold a Ukrainian-Serbian business forum in the near future, as well as to resume the work of the Serbian embassy in Ukraine for the first time since March 2022,” Kuleba said in a post on X.
Kuleba also said he and Vucic discussed a variety of bilateral issues building on “productive dialogue” Vucic has previously had with Zelensky.
Since the start of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Serbia has aided the war-torn country by sheltering Ukrainians and donating humanitarian aid.
In a statement during her visit to the country to participate in a mental health conference, First Lady Olena Zelenska expressed gratitude to Serbia for its contribution.
“I am grateful to Serbia for understanding that people matter most,” added Zelenska, who visited the country to take part in a mental health conference.
Traditionally one of Moscow’s closest allies in Europe, Belgrade has long tried to walk a tightrope between its historical ties to Russia and a potential future of closer European integration.
Serbia’s contribution to Ukraine aid can be seen as part of its commitment to joining the European Union, but its relationship with the bloc is strained refusing to participate in EU sanctions rounds against Russia.
“Serbia is deeply committed to becoming a member of the European Union and has voted for the United Nations resolution condemning Russian actions in Ukraine and has upheld its territorial integrity and sovereignty, and repeatedly sent various types of aid,” Serbia’s ambassador to the United States said in a statement to CNN last year.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken attends at a coffee shop in Kyiv on Tuesday.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated that the US intends to make use of seized Russian assets to provide funding for the reconstruction of Ukraine.
“Our Congress has given us the power to seize Russian assets in the United States. We intend to use it,” Blinken said during a speech at the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute in Ukraine.
Blinken said the US is working with other G7 countries to do the same with “Russia’s immobilized sovereign assets.”
“The G7 can unlock billions of dollars and send a powerful message to Putin that time is not on his side,” Blinken said.
Blinken’s remarks come after a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which Blinken reiterated the US “commitment to Ukraine’s recovery,” according to a State Department Spokesperson Matthew Miller.
During his visit to Ukraine, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken echoed the Biden administration’s strong support of the beleaguered country amid Russia’s recent advances in Kharkiv.
The speech comes after Congress and the White House passed a funding package that included $60-plus billion in aid to Ukraine, and the EU approved a financial package of up to $54 billion.
Blinken focused much of his speech about building security and economic infrastructure in Ukraine to pave a path to NATO acceptance.
“When we hold the Washington Summit in July, we’ll take tangible steps to increase NATO’s role in building a resilient, capable Ukrainian force, supporting its ongoing reforms that are integrating Ukraine into the alliance,” Blinken said.
French President Emmanuel Macron told his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in a phone call on Tuesday that France will send more military aid to Ukraine “in the coming days and weeks.”
During the call, Macron condemned the “intensification of Russian strikes on Ukraine, notably on its energy infrastructure” and reiterated “France’s determination to provide all the support necessary” to Kyiv in concert with its international partners.
Georgian demonstrators attempt to break into the parliament through a metal barrier erected in front of its main gates, during a rally against the controversial “foreign influence” bill in Tbilisi, Georgia, on Tuesday, May 14.
Georgia’s parliament has passed a controversial “foreign agents” bill despite widespread domestic opposition and warnings from the European Union that its enactment would imperil the country’s chances of joining the bloc.
The new law will require organizations receiving more than 20% of their funding from abroad to register as “agents of foreign influence” or face crippling fines. Opponents say that the legislation was modeled after similar laws in Russia that the Kremlin has used to increasingly snuff out opposition and civil society.
Protesters rally against the “foreign influence” bill in front of the parliament in Tbilisi on Tuesday.
Georgian law enforcement officers detain a demonstrator in Tbilisi on May 14.
Georgian Dream, the ruling party that pushed through the legislation, has hit back at criticism, saying the move will promote transparency and national sovereignty. But the party has long been suspected of harboring pro-Russian sympathies.
Georgia’s opposition lawmakers hang Georgian and a European Union flags on the facade of the parliament building in Tbilisi on Tuesday.
Nightly protests have been shutting down the capital, Tbilisi, for about a month. About 50,000 people came out Sunday evening in the city of 1 million people to speak out against what they’ve dubbed “the Russian law.”
Law enforcement officers use water cannons to disperse protesters in Tbilisi on May 1.
Georgia applied for EU membership in 2022 and was granted candidate status in December, a move seen as an effort to reverse the former Soviet republic’s drift toward Russia.
Russia invaded Georgia in 2008 and still occupies about 20% of Georgia’s internationally recognized territory.
A Ukainian police officer walks past a destroyed residential building, following artillery and air raids in the village of Ocheretyne, in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, on April 15.
While attention is focused on advances in Kharkiv, Russia’s forces continue to exploit Ukraine’s weaknesses elsewhere, in particular along a stretch of the frontline west of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk.
Since Russia captured the industrial town of Avdiivka in February, its forces have taken advantage of Kyiv’s acute shortage in artillery ammunition, as well as manpower deficiencies, by pushing into a series of towns and villages.
Ukraine’s General Staff, in its Tuesday morning update, hinted clearly at further tactical withdrawals in the area around the village of Ocheretyne – which was captured by Russian troops earlier this month.
“In order to save the lives of our defenders, the positions of the Defense Forces were changed in some areas due to intense enemy fire,” the General Staff reported.
The DeepStateMap monitoring group shows small Russian advances most days in the area, each one moving them a little closer to the town of Pokrovsk, a key military hub for logistics and supplies along the entire eastern part of the frontline.
Further to the west, Ukrainian forces are also coming under pressure southeast of Zaporizhzhia, one of the few areas where they achieved success, albeit modest in size, in last summer’s counteroffensive.
Both Russian military bloggers and Ukraine’s DeepStateMap report small Russian advances into a pocket of re-captured Ukrainian territory between the villages of Robotyne and Verbove.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken walks on Independence Square in Kyiv, on May 14, during a visit to Ukraine.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv earlier Tuesday, a meeting that comes at especially difficult time for Ukraine. Russia continues its push into northeastern Ukraine after making several advances there over the past week, marking Moscow’s most significant gains since Kyiv’s forces recaptured Kharkiv in 2022. Here is what you need to know:
- More Patriot systems needed: Zelensky told Blinken that Ukraine urgently needs more air defenses, a call that was reiterated on Tuesday by German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz who urged European countries to do more to help Ukraine access these systems.
- Some US hardware is already in Ukraine: Blinken said some the long-awaited US military assistance has already started arriving in Ukraine, after months of delays. US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a readout that Blinken and Zelensky discussed recent battlefield updates, the importance of the US security assistance, long-term security arrangements and “ongoing work to ensure Ukraine can thrive economically.”
- Russia pushes further in Kharkiv region: More than 7,000 people have been evacuated from the Kharkiv region, as Russian forces continued to make advances south into Ukrainian villages there after launching their surprise cross-border assault four days ago.
- More pressure in Donetsk region: While attention is focused on Kharkiv, Russia’s forces continue to exploit Ukraine’s weaknesses elsewhere, in particular along a stretch of the frontline west of the Russian-occupied city of Donetsk. Many Ukrainians believe Russia’s real intentions in its Kharkiv push are to force Ukraine to redeploy troops defending key locations further south and Zelensky sought to reassure them that Russia’s operations in the Kharkiv border area will not lead to defensive gaps elsewhere along the frontline.
- Putin to meet Xi: Chinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Russian President Vladimir Putin to China later this week – the latest sign of their growing alignment as conflict devastates Gaza and Ukraine.
- EU leaders approve more aid: The leaders of European Union countries approved a plan that will see a regular flow of payments as part of the EU Ukraine financial financial package of up to $54 billion.
European Union (EU) leaders on Tuesday approved a plan that will see a regular flow of payments as part of its Ukraine financial assistance plan, known as the Ukraine Facility program, after the bloc determined the country has met the preconditions required to unlock a financial package of up to $54 billion.
The Ukraine Facility program, according to the EU Council, is intended to help assist Ukraine with the recovery, reconstruction and modernization of the country.
According to an EU Council press release, an initial $2 billion of “pre-financing” will be disbursed until regular payments can begin. The payments will be subjected to the agreed reforms Ukraine must take as part of its EU accession process in the next four years.
“An important step has been made to deliver much-needed, regular and predictable financial support to Ukraine’s recovery, reconstruction, and modernisation over the next four years. The EU has once more confirmed its commitment to Ukraine’s stability and growth,” Vincent van Peteghem, president of the EU Council, said in a statement.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal thanked EU members for approving the plan. Writing on Telegram, he said he expects Ukraine to receive $17 billion in the next year under the program.
A volunteer assists an elderly couple from Vovchansk during their evacuation to Kharkiv, following Russian military strikes in the Kharkiv region, on May 14.
More than 7,000 people have been evacuated from the Kharkiv region, the head of the region’s military administration, Oleh Syniehubov, said on Tuesday.
The majority of the evacuations took place in the Chuhuiv and Kharkiv districts, with volunteers assisting efforts.
Oleksii Kharkivskyi, head of patrol police in Vovchansk, helps an elderly man to evacuate on May 13.
People who have fled from different areas of the Kharkiv region wait in a queue to be registered at an evacuation point in Kharkiv on May 14.
Meanwhile, the Sumy region, which borders the Kharkiv region, has also ordered a “voluntary evacuation” for several towns where attacks have increased, according to the region’s military administration.
In a statement on Telegram, the Sumy regional military administration outlined that people in Bilopillia and Vorozhba are being encouraged to evacuate, especially families and children.
The administration also stated that evacuation efforts are also continuing for border communities in the region, which have been under an evacuation order since July 2023.
A policeman checks a car carrying people who have fled the village of Tsyrkuny, at a checkpoint outside Kharkiv, on May 13.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is pictured ahead of a meeting with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, in Kyiv, on May 14.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has sought to reassure Ukrainians that Russia’s operations in the northern Kharkiv border area will not lead to defensive gaps elsewhere along the frontline.
“We understand how the enemy is acting, and we see the plan to draw our forces back,” Zelensky said in an address on Monday evening.
“Of course, we are not leaving the Donetsk areas without the necessary support and supplies, namely the Kramatorsk and Pokrovsk directions,” he added.
Many Ukrainians believe Russia’s real intentions in its Kharkiv push are to force Ukraine to redeploy troops defending key locations further south, including Chasiv Yar, which sits on high ground west of Bakhmut.
Russian soldiers have been making steady advances towards it in recent weeks and the capture of Chasiv Yar would being Russia closer to three key military towns – Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk and Sloviansk – in the Donetsk region.
While Russia’s desire to capture all of Donetsk is clear – it announced it had annexed the region back in 2022 – some analysts argue the Kharkiv operation might also be about the creation of a buffer zone along Russia’s border with Ukraine.
The Institute for the Study of War says reports of the destruction of several bridges across key waterways suggest Moscow is “prioritizing the creation of a ‘buffer zone’ over a deeper penetration into the region.”
Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has made several references in the past to creating such a zone inside Ukraine, to better protect Russian towns like Belgorod from coming under Ukrainian attack.
Rescuers work at the site of Russian air strikes in the village of Lyptsi, Ukraine, on April 10.
Russian forces continue to make advances south into Ukrainian villages in the Kharkiv region after launching their surprise cross-border assault four days ago.
One of the main Russian efforts appears targeted on Lyptsi, described by one Ukrainian military blogger as “a very important village” – due to its position on Ukraine’s second defensive line.
The DeepStateMap monitoring group indicates two further settlements in the direction of the village have been taken under full or partial Russian control, though Serhii Melnyk, Commander of the Kharkiv city defense forces, said an attempted advance on Lyptsi itself had been repelled.
Reports make clear that Russia continues to make heavy use of large glide bombs ahead of its ground operations. Glide bombs can carry hundreds of kilograms of explosives and are dropped from aircraft which – in the case of attacks on the Kharkiv border region – do not even need to enter Ukrainian airspace.
A Ukrainian National Guard Special Forces unit reported 20 such aerial attacks in one direction alone.
Meanwhile, a few dozen kilometers to the east, Vovchansk remains a Russian focus, though it appears Ukraine has still managed to prevent a full Russian assault on the town.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz speaks during a press conference in Stockholm, Sweden, on May 14.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has appealed to European countries to do more to support Ukraine, saying he hoped they would provide Ukraine with “munition, artillery, tanks, and air defense, and especially Patriot [air defense systems.]”
Speaking in Stockholm on Tuesday, the German chancellor vowed support for Ukraine for as long as necessary.
Scholz said Germany’s announcement in April that it would send a third Patriot system to Ukraine had not been an easy decision as Germany did not have many systems of its own.
Some of Ukraine’s allies have come under increasing pressure to provide Ukraine with air defense systems.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky last month showed his dissatisfaction over deliveries of Western military aid from key allies, saying air defense, in particular Patriot systems, were “what [Ukraine’s] partners have and what should be working here in Ukraine now, to destroy Russian terrorist ambitions.”
Only the US, Germany and the Netherlands have supplied Patriot systems to Ukraine so far. Spain promised to send Patriot missiles but not a full battery.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that his country urgently needs more air defenses as it faces increased attacks from Russia in the east.
“Air defense (is) the biggest deficit for us. I think that the biggest problem is … today we really need two Patriots for Kharkiv region because there are people under attack: civilians and warriors. Everybody. They are under Russian missiles,” Zelensky told reporters ahead of his meeting with Blinken.
The Institute for the Study of War in Washington said last month that Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine have become much more effective in recent months, even though there was no dramatic increase in their size or frequency.
“Instead, Russian forces are exploiting the degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella caused by continued delays in Western security assistance and appear to be leveraging tactical adaptations stemming from several months of Russian efforts to test Ukrainian air defenses,” the Washington-based group said in a report.
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky meets with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and members of their delegations in Kyiv on May 14.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has concluded his meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, after discussing “recent battlefield updates and the importance of newly arrived U.S. security assistance,” according to US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller.
“The two discussed recent battlefield updates and the importance of newly-arrived US security assistance to helping repel Russian attacks,” Miller said in a read-out following the meeting. “They also discussed long-term security arrangements and ongoing work to ensure Ukraine can thrive economically. Secretary Blinken reiterated the United States’ enduring support for Ukraine’s sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity and our commitment to Ukraine’s recovery.”
Blinken’s visit comes as Russia continues its new push into northeastern Ukraine after making several major advances there over the past week, marking Moscow’s most significant gains since Kyiv’s forces recaptured Kharkiv in late summer 2022.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said the long-awaited US military assistance has started arriving in Ukraine, after months of delays caused by political haggling in the US Congress.
Blinken is the first of Biden administration official to visit Kyiv after the passage of the Ukraine funding, which Kyiv and its allies hope could be a turning point in the war.
The $61 billion package includes about $23 billion to replenish US weapons, stockpiles and facilities and nearly $14 billion to help Ukraine buy advanced weapons systems and other defense equipment. More than $11 billion will fund current US military operations in the wider region.
As he met Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday, Blinken said that “the assistance was now on the way.”
“Some of it already arrived, and more of it will be arriving, and that’s going to make a real difference against the Russian aggression on the battlefield,” he said. “We are determined, along with many partners of Ukraine, to make sure you succeed on the battlefield.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken walks to board a train in Przemysl, Poland, en route to Kyiv, on May 13.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has arrived in Kyiv at the time when Ukraine needs as much help as it can get.
Russia has made significant gains on the battlefield in recent weeks, including on Ukraine’s northern border near Kharkiv, where it took control of several villages. Kharkiv is Ukraine’s second biggest city and it is becoming more vulnerable to attacks as Russia inches closer to its edges.
In a rare and frank admission of how bad the picture is at the moment, Ukraine’s top general Oleksandr Syrskyi said that the situation in the northern Kharkiv region has “significantly worsened” after Russia claimed to have captured four further villages as it expanded its surprise cross-border offensive.
Moscow has managed to take advantage of Ukraine’s ammunition shortages, pushing through multiple spots alongside the eastern Ukraine frontline as the US Congress dragged its feet for months on the $61 billion Ukraine aid package.
The assistance has been approved last month, but it will take months for the crucial weapons to be delivered where they are needed. Russia, meanwhile, continues to gain momentum.
Blinken admitted as much ahead of his meeting with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, saying “We know this is a challenging time.”
Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky greets US Secretary of State Antony Blinken prior to their meeting in Kyiv on May 14.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday, marking the first visit of a Biden administration official to Ukraine following the long-delayed passage of US supplemental funding to the war-torn country, the State Department announced.
Coming amid Ukrainian setbacks on the battlefield, Blinken intends to send a “strong signal of reassurance to the Ukrainians,” the official said.
Blinken will also discuss “the other steps that we’re taking to provide long-term assurance and commitment on the security front to the Ukrainians, including our bilateral security agreement,” the official added.
During his fourth visit to Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion, Blinken is also scheduled to meet with civil society and private sector partners as well as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. US officials acknowledge that the slowdown in US support, due to congressional infighting, has exacerbated a challenging situation for Ukraine.
Read the full story.
Cinese leader Xi Jinping will welcome Vladimir Putin to China on Thursday for the Russian president’s second visit in less than a year – the latest sign of their growing alignment amid hardening global fault lines as conflict devastates Gaza and Ukraine.
Putin will arrive in China just over a week since entering a new term in office, extending his autocratic rule until 2030 – the result of an election without any true opposition.
His visit, set to take place May 16-17, according to Chinese state media, mirrors Xi’s own state visit to Moscow just over a year ago, where he marked the norm-shattering start of a new term as president – like Putin, after rewriting rules around how long leaders can serve.
Their meeting comes months ahead of the American presidential elections and as Washington faces mounting international backlash over its support for Israel’s war on Gaza. It’s set to provide a platform for the leaders to discuss how all this can advance their shared ambition to degrade and offer an alternative to American power.
The visit also comes as the two leaders operate within what observers say is a loose but growing coordination of interests between avowedly anti-American countries Iran and North Korea. Pyongyang – which has an economy almost entirely dependent of China – is believed by Western governments to be aiding Russia with war supplies, as is Tehran, which is being bolstered economically by Russia and China and is a powerful player in the conflict in the Middle East.
Read the full story.
Uraine’s top general says the situation in the northern Kharkiv region has “significantly worsened” after Russia claimed to have captured four further villages as it expanded its surprise cross-border offensive.
A Ukrainian regional official insisted Russia’s progress was not yet “significant” but admitted ground fighting in the area was spreading. Meanwhile, speaking on British television, UK Foreign Secretary David Cameron acknowledged it was an “extremely dangerous moment,” adding that Russia had effectively “invaded [Ukraine] again.”
The precise goal of Russia’s new push – which began in the early hours of Friday morning – is unclear. It may be to create a buffer zone designed to reduce Ukrainian attacks on Russian territory, or possibly even a renewed assault on the city of Kharkiv, 30 kilometers (18 miles) to the south.
Equally, it could be an attempt to draw Ukrainian forces away from other key Russian objectives further south – which was the rationale Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky offered in his Sunday evening address.
“The idea behind the attacks in Kharkiv region is to stretch our forces and undermine morale and the motivational foundations of Ukrainians’ ability to defend ourselves,” he said.
According to information from the Defense Ministry in Moscow, Russia now claims control over nine Ukrainian border villages, which are clustered in two areas, now just a few dozen kilometers apart, to the northeast of Kharkiv city.
Read the full story.
Rssian President Vladimir Putin’s weekend government shakeup appears to be the triumph of competence over loyalty: The Kremlin leader has replaced his camping-and-fishing buddy head of the country’s defense ministry with someone widely seen as a competent technocrat.
That, at least, seems to be the immediate takeway after the Kremlin announced that Andrey Belousov, a civilian economist and former first deputy prime minister, would take over the top slot at the Russian Ministry of Defense from Sergei Shoigu, who had served in the post since 2012.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia’s Central Bank, put the shakeup down to the growing interrelationship between the war and Russia’s economy.
“Putin’s priority is war; war of attrition is won by economics,” Prokopenko wrote in a thread on X. “Belousov is in favor of stimulating demand from the budget, which means that military spending will at least not decrease but rather increase.”
Such a move makes sense when one views the war in Ukraine as a contest between the defense manufacturers of the West, which supplies Ukraine with ammunition and military hardware, and those of Russia.
US and NATO officials already concede that Russia is massively outproducing the West when it comes to production of artillery ammunition: NATO intelligence estimates of Russian defense production shared with CNN indicate that Russia produces roughly three times more artillery shells per year than the US and Europe for Ukraine.
Read the full story.
The changing language used by the Ukrainian military in 72 hours of daily updates tells the story: “Ongoing defensive fighting.” “Significantly worsened.” Russian “tactical success.”
You rarely ever hear Kyiv’s top brass sounding downbeat, but their steep southerly trajectory reflects the grave place Ukraine finds itself in. Russia is not just advancing slowly in one place; it appears to be advancing in four, across the frontline.
Moscow knows it is on the clock: in about a month, the $61 billion of US military aid will start to translate into Ukraine having the weapons it has been begging for. So, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to be throwing whatever he can at it, knowing the fight will likely only get tougher for his forces in the summer ahead.
First, and most acutely troubling, is the northern border near Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city. Russian forces have crossed the border in multiple locations and claim to have seized nine villages. Their move 3 to 4.5 miles (5 to 7 kilometers) into Ukraine, in the border area above Ukraine’s second city of Kharkiv, is arguably their fastest advance since the first days of the war.
And secondly, Russia can again tie up Ukraine’s over-stretched army with constant and grinding pressure on Kharkiv, exacting a toll with crude shelling on a vast urban center.
Ukraine’s rhetorical response has been telling. Its leaders have, for once, openly said how bad it is. They appear to be shuffling commanders around – which is not something you do in the heat of battle without desperate reason. There is vocal criticism of the failure to prepare and fortify the northern border regions over the past year.
Read the full analysis.