Ukraine war: what comes after the prisoner swap?

Russia launched a massive offensive with hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles against Ukraine on the weekend. At the same time the two war parties completed a 1,000-for-1,000 prisoner swap which began on Friday – the biggest exchange since the war began. European commentators discuss the situation.

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Peace process full of uncertainties

La Repubblica draws hope from the prisoner exchange:

“This is an uncertain path, the outcome of which depends on many factors. And not just because the Europeans are groping around in the dark, so to speak. … Even Erdoğan, it seems, lacks a vision of the big picture. … He said that Trump didn’t tell him what was actually said in his last phone conversation with Putin which led to the backtracking on the threat of US sanctions against Moscow – and plunged Kyiv and the rest of the West into a crisis. Nevertheless, the trip [to Moscow on Monday] by Turkish foreign minister [Hakan Fidan] is the result of the successful prisoner exchange. This step offers hope for the future.”

Perfidious dual strategy

There is a clear connection between the prisoner exchange and the massive airstrikes against Ukraine, military analyst Aleksey Kopytko writes on Facebook:

“The large-scale and, from a military point of view, senseless night-time bombings of recent days were apparently deliberately timed by the Russians to coincide with the prisoner swap and take the conflict to a new level while at the same time deflecting criticism. … This is pure terrorism. The Russians’ perfidy knows no bounds.”

Ukraine needs cash

The Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung calls for the rapid confiscation of frozen Russian state assets:

“Ukraine urgently needs money. The country has a strong defence industry but it lacks the money to make full use of it. And time is running out, because two fatal deadlines are approaching. Firstly, the remaining billions that America pledged under Joe Biden will be used up a few weeks from now. Secondly, the EU has yet to confirm the immobilisation of Russian money in June, and this must be done unanimously. However, if Putin’s friend Viktor Orbán votes against it this time, for example because Trump tells him to, the money will simply go back to Russia – a sum almost four times as high as the regular annual budget of the German armed forces.”