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Rift in Iran’s power structures
The Kurier eyes the divisions within the Iranian regime:
“Iran is on its last legs before its economy finally collapses. … But very few political leaders in Tehran seem to acknowledge this, and the Revolutionary Guards are unwilling to budge even an inch. So we can already see a clear rift in Iran’s power structures between those who want to lead the country out of the war by making significant, though still hard-won, concessions to the US and those who, with the blind fury of religious fanaticism, would rather see the theocracy destroyed than yield. Which of the various factions prevails in Tehran will be crucial in the coming weeks and months.”
A single defector is all it would take
Political scientist Vladimir Pastukhov comments in a Telegram post picked up by Echo:
“It all hangs on whether a defector can be found in the top ranks of the Revolutionary Guards who will switch sides to support ‘civilian administration’ (where, as in any despotic regime, there are plenty of collaborators) and thereby create the conditions for Iran’s peaceful surrender. If that happens, fortune will shine on Trump – and on all of us. The conflict would reach a sort of ‘half-solution’, and we will be able to live for a little longer within the familiar paradigms of a crumbling but, in its own way, likeable world order (compared, that is, to what lies ahead).”
Not the faintest glimmer of hope
Commentator Lluís Bassets sees little cause for optimism in El País:
“Fragile, temporary and even contradictory truces, instead of a general ceasefire followed by the peace that the region deserves. … It will take a miracle for such a truce to hold. … Unless the guns between Israel and Hezbollah truly fall silent, how can there be progress in the peace talks between Iran and the US?. … How can hasty negotiations solve disputes that no one has been able to resolve since 1979 in the case of Iran, and since 1948 in Lebanon’s case? … Trump’s vainglorious euphoria is not providing even the faintest glimmer of hope for a peaceful and amicable solution to such thorny issues.”
Arms control impossible
Despite sanctions and surveillance, Iran has managed to secretly build up its military arsenal, Diário de Notícias concludes:
“The smoke hanging over Iran’s cities and industrial complexes should dispel one of the greatest illusions of modern geopolitics: that economic sanctions and IAEA monitoring have been effective in curbing Tehran’s military ambitions. Reality has proven the opposite. While the world was focusing on the technical debate over small quantities of enriched uranium and the fate of the nuclear deal, the Iranian regime was carrying out a quiet but profound military transformation, the results of which are now visible to all.”
Situation remains unstable
The relief at the opening of the Strait of Hormuz didn’t even last 24 hours, complains Novinky.cz:
“The morning’s optimism gave way to brutal reality when two ships – a tanker and a container ship – were rammed. The only good thing to come out of all this is that the price of oil, which had fallen on Friday after the announcement about opening the strait, didn’t immediately shoot up again, because oil can’t be traded at the weekend. … It should be a lesson for us all: dealings with Iran will never be easy. To think otherwise would be naive. And even if they were, it’s always better to be positively surprised than to be confronted with a situation for which you are not prepared. Of course, that still doesn’t answer the question of whether to fill up the tank now or to wait another week.”