Russian troops have been unable to make any significant advances in recent months. Military experts attribute this mainly to the dominance of Ukrainian drones – not only in the airspace directly above the front line, but also behind it on the aggressor’s side. Ukrainian attacks on industrial and energy facilities deep within Russia are also intensifying. Commentators see the tide turning in the war.
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No longer affordable or winnable
Russia has bitten off significantly more than it can chew with this war, writes Der Standard:
“Russia’s leaders certainly seem to be casting about for an exit strategy. With every day that passes on the front and beyond, it’s becoming clearer that Putin has made a colossal error of judgement. Four years after the full-scale invasion, Russia, supposedly the world’s second largest military power, is on the verge of losing the war. … The easing of US sanctions has won Putin a bit of time, with more money flowing into his war coffers. He needs to use it to find a way out. Because even with a bit more breathing space he cannot afford this war anymore. And he can’t win it either.”
“Housewives” winning the drone war
In recent months, Ukraine has revolutionised warfare, writes political scientist Sergei Medvedev on Facebook:
“Ukrainian ‘middlestrike’ drones can operate unimpeded 300 kilometres away from the fighting zone and against Russian military reserves, while FPV drones have basically created a wall on the front line that can halt any incursions by groups of Russian soldiers. … It is ‘Ukrainian housewives’ armed with 3D-printers (as the boss of a major German arms manufacturer sneered recently) who are beating the vast Russian arms industry – and without a doubt this is a revolution and a victory for networked organisation over the hierarchical military-industrial complex.”
Russia’s campaign stalling
Blogger Karl Woloch analyses the situation on Facebook:
“The Russian army offensive has basically failed, and the price it pays for every kilometre taken from the Ukrainian army has increased dramatically. … In the last three months Moscow’s military has not been able to replace its losses with new professional soldiers. … [Kremlin spokesman] Dmitry Peskov’s constant references to a willingness to end the war if we withdraw from Donbass (he no longer talks about the ‘aims of the special operation’) certainly suggest that the Kremlin is starting to realise that its negotiating position is becoming weaker.”