Looking to build on the ceasefire in Lebanon agreed this week, top officials from the Middle East, United States and Europe will begin meetings on Friday to seek an end to the war in Gaza and set the tone for decisive negotiations with Iran over its nuclear programme.
If successful, analysts believe these talks could yield a “grand bargain” between the incoming administration of US president-elect Donald Trump and the Supreme Leader of Iran’s Islamic Republic Ali Khamenei.
With the odds stacked against such a “Nixon in China” moment, most experts expect the separate but parallel negotiations between Tehran and the Trump camp and Europe’s major powers, which began on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly earlier this month, to fail.
Nonetheless, observers say there appears to be a serious appetite for an unorthodox deal in Mar-a-Lago and Tehran alike, with Tesla CEO Elon Musk reportedly acting as Trump’s point man in a meeting with Iran’s ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani on November 11.
“The Iranians are definitely trying to avoid a return to maximum pressure” sanctions and “quite willing to do whatever it takes”, including reaching out to Musk and trying to make contact with the Trump team, according to Andreas Krieg, an associate professor of defence studies at King’s College London.
Trump seems “quite interested” in a deal with Iran, rather than confrontation but “obviously it would have to be on Trump’s terms”, which he has not yet disclosed, Krieg said. Then “we’ll see if Iran is willing and able” to provide what Trump would be asking for, he told This Week In Asia.