China-Russia trade to hit new highs, but Trump factor, payments cloud outlook

China’s trade with Russia is set to hit new highs this year as payment barriers have been partly addressed in recent months, but analysts warned that US president-elect Donald Trump’s return could be accompanied with more hits to bilateral trade.

And prolonged financial sanctions are also complicating Russia’s efforts to sell products to China due to delayed payments, they warned.

China saw the quickest boost to its exports to Russia in almost a year in October, with shipments rising by 26.7 per cent year on year.

In the first 10 months of 2024, trade between the two countries amounted to US$202.2 billion, representing a 2.8 per cent increase from the previous year, according to Chinese customs data.

The rapid growth has been fuelled by the United States and European Union sanctions against Russia over the war in Ukraine, with China becoming an important source of cars and electronics.

Russia’s growing appetite for goods from its southern neighbour has elevated it to China’s sixth-largest trading partner in the first 10 months of the year, and fourth-largest on a single-country basis, behind the US, Japan and South Korea.