Will the Gaza ceasefire deal hold? Some observers remain doubtful

New: You can now listen to articles.

This audio is generated by an AI tool.

How a fragile ceasefire in Gaza will play out remains unclear, even as fighting halted on Sunday (Jan 19) following a deal between Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas, said observers. 

The agreement puts a pause to a 15-month war that has devastated the enclave and wreaked havoc across the Middle East, and is designed to bring an end to the bloodshed. 

But already, the truce was off to a rocky start, pushed back for almost three hours as both sides traded blame for the delay.

Some experts were unsure if the deal will hold through the challenging three phases, which would require new negotiations to advance. 

TRUMP’S RETURN 

They are several unknowns, including the compliance of both sides with the ceasefire terms, especially when it involves bigger commitments such as the complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza and the release of more hostages by Hamas, said Jean-Loup Samaan, senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute. 

“In addition to that, we don’t know how the Trump administration will look at the future of Gaza,” he told CNA938. 

The deal came after months of negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, and took place just ahead of the inauguration of incoming US President Donald Trump on Monday. 

The Biden administration, which had worked closely with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to push the deal over the line, said it now falls on the next administration to help implement the deal. 

“What we saw over the last days is that Trump and his team had no problem putting pressure on (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu to get a deal for the release of the hostages,” said Samaan, adding that it is unclear how much further Trump would go to ensure a stable post-war future of the enclave. 

FRACTURES WITHIN ISRAEL’S GOVERNMENT

While the long-awaited ceasefire brings relief, several obstacles remain, said Samaan. 

Fractures have emerged within Netanyahu’s government, with several far-right ministers resigning from their posts in protest over the deal. 

Amid pressure at home and abroad, Israel’s political situation is uncertain, said Samaan, who believes there could be more resignations over post-war plans for Gaza. 

“So you have this contradiction in a way between the euphoria of the hope that is brought about by this ceasefire and at the same time all the politics, the tactics that are not vanishing. So I’d say we have to wait in the coming days to see if we can sustain this momentum,” he added. 

If other far-right lawmakers follow suit, Netanyahu’s government could collapse, which would potentially force early elections.

“Netanyahu has always shown that his primary concern right now is remaining in power himself,” said Jonathan Panikoff, director of the Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at think tank Atlantic Council. 

“And so the tensions inherent within the Israeli political system are gonna have an impact in the coming months as well.”

FUTURE OF HAMAS

Meanwhile, Hamas, which has controlled Gaza for almost two decades, has displayed its staying power in the enclave despite losing its top leadership and thousands of fighters.

Panikoff cautioned that Hamas would likely try to rebuild.

“I think Hamas certainly is going to have a recruitment drive,” he told CNA’s Asia First.

“One of the reasons Hamas was able to build its weapons capabilities was fundamentally because Iran was supplying it to them. That’s going to be harder today,” said Panikoff. 

“I think it’s going to be harder to smuggle in the weapons like it previously was. That doesn’t mean Hamas might not still be able to have some capabilities remaining and be able to recruit members.”

Hamas released the first three female hostages on Sunday, in exchange for 90 Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails.

The releases are part of phase one of the deal, in which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages in Gaza will be released over six weeks in return for nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.

The hostages were taken when Hamas gunmen stormed into southern Israel on Oct 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking 250 captives, according to Israeli tallies. Most have since been released or killed.

A further 400 Israeli soldiers and security personnel have been killed in combat in Gaza.

About 47,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliatory campaign, according to Gaza-based health officials. 

REGIONAL REPERCUSSIONS IF CEASEFIRE FAILS

Israel’s assault has destroyed much of the territory’s vital infrastructure, from its health services to water and sanitation systems. Almost the entire 2.3-million population of Gaza were forcibly displaced during the war. 

Observers said it will take a prolonged and focused diplomacy to achieve stability in Gaza. 

What started as a battle between Israel and Hamas also spilled over to neighbouring Lebanon, Syria and Iraq, amid fears of a wider war with Iran. 

“(Sentiments about) the US in the region, it’s not great, because a lot of the Arab population perceive the US as the one who enabled the war in Gaza and the killing of so many innocents in Gaza,” said Samaan. 

He added there needs to be more external support to rebuild Gaza, especially from Arab states.

Panikoff stressed that the situation in Gaza, which is already dire, will be much worse if the ceasefire deal does not hold. 

In the Middle East, some Arab states would prefer a peaceful region and would like to see Israel better integrated, he added. 

“If the ceasefire falls apart, the chances of all of those things happening just get delayed, if not eventually eliminated, and so there’s real potential regional repercussions.”