SINGAPORE: United States President Donald Trump has once again pulled back from the brink.
With just hours to go before his two-week ceasefire was due to expire, he went from saying that he expected to resume bombing Iran to announcing an extension on Tuesday (Apr 21). He had announced the ceasefire in similar fashion a fortnight ago, shortly after he threatened to wipe out “a whole civilisation”.
This time, Mr Trump did not nail down a duration. Instead, he said the pause would last until Iran came up with a “unified proposal”. Those last two words are telling.
US BLOCKADE A WINNING HAND
That Mr Trump made this move unilaterally – though he said it was a request from Pakistan – shows how he is intent on finding an off-ramp from a war that is increasingly unpopular at home. The war risks damaging both the American economy, as well as Republican hopes of extending control over Congress in November’s midterm elections.
The US had a winning hand when it put in place a blockade of Iranian ports. Just as Iran inflicted pain on the rest of the world by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, the US blockade spread the pain to Iran, which it can ill afford.
At first, the blockade appeared to have the intended effect: On Apr 17, Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the strait was “completely open” to commercial traffic. Minutes later, Mr Trump thanked him on social media.
The relief felt by many around the world did not last for long, however. Less than 24 hours later, the Strait of Hormuz was declared closed again – but this time by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
The IRGC said that the strait’s control was “under the strict management and control of the armed forces”, blaming the continued US blockade.
SIGNS OF A POWER STRUGGLE
That brings us back to the “unified proposal”. In two words, Mr Trump brought into the open what has been the subject of much speculation over the past few days.
He had called the government of Iran “seriously fractured”, but this was the first clear indication of a power struggle between IRGC hardliners and others in the Iranian government, possibly those who are more amenable to compromise.
If true, it would give credence to Mr Trump’s own claim that the US had effected regime change in Iran.
STEP OFF THE ACCELERATOR
Iran’s actions suggest otherwise, however, and follow its own, and familiar, pattern of last-minute zig-zags.
Pakistani mediators had said the Iranian negotiating team would be travelling to Islamabad to resume talks on Wednesday, but Tehran’s stance shifted shortly after. What caused the change of heart? It is impossible to say for sure, but there are good odds that hardliners intervened again, and outmuscled their rivals.
One other significant event that may have been overlooked amid the flurry of developments is the fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping broke his silence on the Strait of Hormuz crisis on Monday.
In comments made to Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman during a phone call, Mr Xi said the waterway “should remain open to normal navigation, which is in the common interest of regional countries and the international community”. Those comments were widely interpreted as a signal to Iran.
The pressure is now on both the US and Iran to step off the accelerator. Which one does first is anyone’s guess.
In hazarding one, however, it would be instructive to consider this: While Mr Trump is fighting against polling numbers; the Islamic Republic is fighting for its very survival.
Carl Skadian, a former journalist and editor for 30 years, is deputy director at the Middle East Institute, National University of Singapore.