What upcoming US and possible Myanmar elections could spell for Southeast Asia

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VIENTIANE: The United States presidential election in November is a likely topic of discussion when top diplomats from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) meet in Laos this week.

This comes following a busy two weeks in US politics, with incumbent President Joe Biden dropping out of the race and an attempt on Republican nominee Donald Trump’s life. 

With the near-death incident kickstarting a boost in popularity for the former president, Southeast Asian nations may need to prepare for a scenario where he is elected, experts said.

Trump will be more transactional than Biden, paying more attention to areas like trade surpluses or deficits, said Professor Joseph Liow, Tan Kah Kee Chair in comparative and international politics at Nanyang Technological University.

This would mean that countries like Singapore would be in the “safe zone” because it has a trade deficit with the US. However, countries like Vietnam will be confronted with a dilemma, he said. 

“On the one hand, there is a realisation that there is strategic value and purpose in improving the relationship between the US and Vietnam from both perspectives,” he said.

“On the other hand, Vietnam has a fairly large trade surplus with the US.”

RELATIONSHIP WITH CHINA A PRIORITY

The meeting of the foreign ministers from ASEAN will be followed by two summits on Saturday set to address key global issues that will be attended by officials from among others, the US, European Union, China and Russia.

Prof Liow added that if Trump returns to the White House, there will be structured checks and balances.

“If Trump comes in, his position will be that he will be able to solve everything. So it doesn’t matter – be it Ukraine, be it cross-strait relations, be it Gaza or Myanmar, South China Sea, he’ll solve it,” said Prof Liow.

However, he added that Trump will prioritise the relationship with China. 

Analysts previously said a Trump and running mate JD Vance ticket could mean a tougher anti-China stance.

POTENTIAL MYANMAR ELECTIONS

Closer to home, potential elections in Myanmar could spell more uncertainties for the region. 

Myanmar army chief Min Aung Hlaing has vowed to hold polls next year, raising many questions on the possibility of elections amid ongoing violence, whether they will be fair and how they will shape the crisis that has dragged on for years.

Yun Sun, senior fellow and co-director of China and East Asia at US-based think tank Stimson Center said: “The goal is legitimisation of the next government that’s heavily controlled by the military or that the goal is that the military wants to shift into the next stage of the politics.”

If the military were to hold the polls, it is widely expected they would win it. 

However, ASEAN does not have unified positions or guidelines on how the bloc should interact with a post-election Myanmar.

The region will have to grapple with whether the military – which is accused of war crimes and killing civilians – should be recognised and legitimised. 

The relevance of a peace plan known as the Five-Point Consensus will also be thrown into question.

Executive director of the Myanmar Institute for Peace and Security Min Zaw Oo said the elections, if held, will likely create a scenario where the military has to step back. 

“Senior General Min Aung Hlaing has to consider whether he wants to become president or remain as commander-in-chief. That’s not something easy for him to decide,” he said. 

“Because once he leaves the military, the next commander-in-chief may have his own mind, and that is something he cannot guarantee.”