It is difficult to put a positive spin on 2024. Two localised conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have become broader regional and potentially global wars. Meanwhile, flashpoints in the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait and the Korean peninsula are on the brink of escalation. Underlying all of this is the impending uncertainty of a second Trump presidency.
In this context, it is easy to forget that South Asia was once regarded as home to the world’s most dangerous flashpoint – Kashmir. Former US president Bill Clinton noted this in reference to the disputed territory, which is subject to the competing claims of nuclear-armed China, India and Pakistan.
While these disputes have not disappeared, a high degree of restraint has been shown by all parties in the region.
Take the China-India relationship: the announcement of a border agreement in October seeks to reset relations following the 2020 Galwan Valley clash, which resulted in the first deaths along the disputed border in over four decades. While there is a long way to go in normalising relations, both sides recognise the need to de-escalate tensions as they face more pressing economic and geopolitical concerns.
For China, the border agreement with India signals an effort to stabilise relations with other countries as it prepares for a more volatile relationship with the United States under a second Trump administration.
For India, the agreement reflects a recognition that it had backed itself into a corner after the 2020 clash by making de-escalation of border tensions a prerequisite to engagement in other areas, such as the economy. China is India’s leading trade partner. New Delhi knows it cannot meet its ambitions of emerging as a global manufacturing hub without components and raw materials from China.
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