HOBART, Australia: During his new Thai counterpart Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s first formal visit to Malaysia, Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced that he is assembling a team of informal advisers to help Malaysia prepare for its future chairmanship of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) next year.
He plans to recruit retired ASEAN leaders to this informal club in the coming weeks, but the first member has already been signed up: Thaksin Shinawatra.
Anwar’s announcement set the region abuzz with talk of the former Thai leader making a comeback in ASEAN issues. The fact that so many in ASEAN circles seem to have been completely uninformed of Anwar’s plans speaks volumes about Malaysia’s intentions to shake up the organisation.
Laos’ leadership of ASEAN this year has mostly been viewed as lacklustre when it comes to two key regional challenges: The ongoing crisis in Myanmar and China’s assertiveness in the South China Sea.
In both cases, the widespread assumption was that Laos’ status as a landlocked country with limited diplomatic and economic power meant it couldn’t do much during its chairmanship. This weakened the long-held perception of ASEAN centrality.
As such, many are looking forward to Malaysia’s presidency, anticipating that Anwar, who has been outspoken on the Myanmar crisis and other international concerns such as Palestine, can instil some forcefulness in ASEAN.
WHAT CAN THAKSIN BRING TO THE TABLE?
Although many stated that Anwar’s decision was unprecedented in ASEAN history, the assembling of informal advisers is rather frequent on a global scale.
The idea is straightforward: You get retired folks with extensive knowledge and experience to offer insights and advice on an informal basis. You get access to ideas and varying perspectives without having to commit to taking action.
Across various locations and contexts, this kind of body is typically referred to as a “council of elders”. Members of these groups typically have personal networks that transcend the restrictive red tape of established bureaucracies and procedures. This is an especially helpful factor, one that many people may not fully understand.
When it comes to the Myanmar issue, Thaksin is particularly valuable.
He is well-connected to the Myanmar junta and is familiar with all its important figures. Thailand and Myanmar share a lengthy border, which puts him in a position to make things happen.
Additionally, most tend to overlook the fact that Thaksin has good connections in Cambodia, which is widely seen in ASEAN circles as being too close to China. Aside from a reputedly tight relationship with former leader Hun Sen, the strongman of Cambodia, Thaksin is also known to have high-level contacts in Singapore and Brunei.
Thaksin can also promote Thailand’s “Six Countries, One Destination” concept, modelled after Europe’s Schengen visa, which would allow tourists to visit Malaysia, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam, Laos and Brunei with a single visa.
Border issues such as human and drug smuggling, as well as road, rail and customs links to boost growth and commercial activity, are also high on Malaysia’s agenda. For instance, Malaysia is eager to begin construction on a new bridge connecting Sungai Kolok district in Narathiwat to Kelantan’s Rantau Panjang within the next three years.
Thaksin is well-placed to deliver some much-needed political lubrication in all these areas.
TOO EARLY TO JUDGE
Most of the anxiety about Thaksin stems from his conviction for corruption in Thailand.
But a closer look reveals that his conviction was primarily due to the volatile nature of Thai politics. A sizeable proportion of Thai voters still supports him, and his renowned prowess for deal-making in Thai politics has resulted in his youngest daughter, Paetongtarn, becoming prime minister.
His conviction is more than just a matter of corruption; it also has political undertones.
It’s probably too early to tell how this informal advisory committee will assist Malaysia in leading ASEAN next year.
A lot will depend on who else Anwar nominates to sit at this table. Former foreign minister of Singapore George Yeo has been named by the press as a potential candidate. Also on the list: A former minister of Indonesia and another senior figure from the Philippines.
However, this is a move that will likely benefit not just Anwar and Malaysia, but ASEAN as a whole.
With Donald Trump taking the reins of American foreign policy in a matter of months, things may become complex in ASEAN circles depending on his next moves, especially regarding China. Garnering the backing of former prominent leaders in the region indicates that Anwar may be striving to demonstrate to the world that ASEAN unity runs deep among its members.
As all of Southeast Asia gears up for a potentially fraught 2025, any counsel from elders who have successfully dealt with similar challenges in their own tenure is not only welcome, but also critical to the smooth operation of ASEAN and ASEAN unity.
James Chin is Professor of Asian Studies at the Asia Institute Tasmania, University of Tasmania. He is also a Senior Fellow at the Jeffrey Cheah Institute on Southeast Asia and adjunct professor at Monash University.