Commentary: If 2024 was the year of elections, 2025 will be the year of uncertainty

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SINGAPORE: As 2024 draws to a close, in case someone needs to read this, it’s okay if the year did not go as planned. It didn’t for many. We still got through it, and that in itself is worth celebrating.

Political upheaval and wars dominated the headlines unsurprisingly, but it would be a mistake to focus solely on the doom and gloom each year. Let’s start with the bright spots in the year.

HOLDING ON TO THE BRIGHT SPOTS

Only 17 years old and Maximilian Maeder carried the weight of a nation of his shoulders. Eight years after Joseph Schooling’s historic swimming gold, the kitefoiler rode his way to a bronze medal at the 2024 Paris Olympics. Granted a deferment from National Service, everyone keenly awaits what else this teenager – wise beyond his years – will achieve.

Yip Pin Xiu wowed us yet again in the pool, with a historic feat of Paralympic golds in three successive Games in not one, but two events. And even if Olympic badminton players – Yeo Jia Min, Loh Kean Yew, Jessica Tan and Terry Hee – did not take the podium, their valiant performances cemented their places and the sport in our hearts.

And did you score tickets to Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour in Singapore in March? Economists say “Swiftonomics” boosted the first quarter GDP, but more intangible was the sense of fun and excitement in the air. Just don’t forget that “boring” Singapore is partly why it draws big entertainment acts.

Finally, the Causeway that links Singapore and Malaysia’s Johor Bahru celebrated its 100 years in June. But think of it and endless traffic jams come to mind, which is a pity considering how important this connection is to both sides. Even the hiccup of Malaysia’s Vehicle Entry Permit smoothed over.

AIR TRAVEL WOES

The fear of flying is generally seen as irrational, given statistics show it is still the safest mode of transportation. But besides the global CrowdStrike outage in July that grounded many flights, 2024 saw a spate of airplane incidents that must have made travellers shudder.

The year started with an explosive collision in Japan’s Haneda Airport in Tokyo, with all 379 onboard Japan Airlines flight JAL516 evacuated safely. Tragically, the year ended with another fiery crash in South Korea, with all but two of the 181 people onboard Jeju Air flight 7C2216 killed, with investigations still ongoing.

In May, one passenger on Singapore Airlines (SIA) flight SQ321 died after sudden severe turbulence threw some passengers out of their seats. Though SIA showed exemplary crisis management, turbulence is a common flight experience that is expected to get worse with climate change.

American planemaker Boeing also came under fire for a series of incidents, including one where a door panel of a 737 MAX 9 jet blew off in mid-air. China’s COMAC may not rock the Airbus-Boeing duopoly for now, but it is a matter of time.

A SUPER YEAR OF ELECTIONS

If 2024 was the year of elections, 2025 will be the year of major uncertainty.

From India and Japan to France, voters raged against the incumbents and ushered in a new era of coalition politics. South Korea is still in crisis after a short-lived imposition of martial law in December, with its impeached president facing arrest and his immediate replacement already thrown out.

Of course, the election no one could miss was the particularly chaotic United States presidential race – with two assassination attempts and a late drop-out before a crushing Democrat defeat.

The world is bracing for what Donald Trump’s second term might bring: Could he “settle” Russia’s war in Ukraine as the three-year mark looms? How might he deal with the tinderbox that is the Middle East? Violence continues in Gaza even as the Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire seems to hold and the regime in Syria has collapsed.

Not just aimed at China, Southeast Asia may also come under extra scrutiny for the Trump administration’s tariffs. Whether US-China ties will improve or deteriorate is hard to say, but 2025 looks to be a challenging year for Chinese President Xi Jinping as he steers a slowing economy.

SOUTHEAST ASIA’S STEADY TRAJECTORY

Against this backdrop, things have been more stable, less dramatic in Southeast Asia. Indonesia completed a peaceful power transition with Prabowo Subianto taking the helm in October, though the question of Joko Widodo’s influence still hangs in the air.

Thailand installed Paetongtarn Shinawatra as prime minister in August after her predecessor was given the boot via the courts. Her accession sets the stage for the return of her father Thaksin.

The former Thai leader’s impact may first be felt in ASEAN, after he was appointed informal adviser to Anwar Ibrahim as Malaysia assumes the chairmanship in the coming year. Perhaps Thaksin’s experience and connections may prove valuable in tackling the crisis in Myanmar after the 2021 coup.

Anwar himself has defied critics by staying in power and will face three major tests in the year ahead – and all this in the shadow of ex-prime minister Najib Razak who still wields considerable influence even behind bars.

SINGAPORE’S POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

In May, Lawrence Wong was sworn in as Prime Minister of Singapore, in a generational leadership transition that is unexciting by design. Mr Wong has promised a different leadership style and as the first Prime Minister to be born post-independence, like many in his 4G team and the electorate, expectations for tangible change will be high.

2024 also saw two high-profile court cases involving politicians. In a twist to what was expected to be a protracted legal battle, former transport minister S Iswaran pleaded guilty to charges of taking gifts as a public servant and was sentenced to 12 months’ jail in October. The trial of Leader of Opposition Pritam Singh was held in November, on charges of lying under oath to a parliamentary committee. The verdict is fixed for Feb 17.

And of course in 2025, every other conversation will be about the upcoming General Election, which must be called by November. The key milestone to look out for will be the formation of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee, and previous polls suggest the election could be called four months or more after this announcement.

AN “ELECTION BUDGET”

Budget 2025 on Feb 18 will thus invariably be seen as an “election Budget”. And though inflation has been easing, cost of living will still be top of mind after the last arduous years.

Add to that recency bias, and several 2024 issues will probably keep coming up in discussion. Public transport made the news on several occasions, in particular, the six-day MRT disruption on the East-West Line in September which affected millions of commuters. In January, public uproar prompted a reversal in the plan to phase out EZ-Link cards in favour of the newer SimplyGo.

Beyond policy and implementation, public communications emerged as a major flashpoint, contributing to public outcry over issues like the blocked acquisition of Income Insurance by German multinational Allianz and the confusion over unmasked NRIC numbers.

Still, there were bright spots for many segments of the population, which could prove transformative for families and society over the longer term.

HDB Build-to-Order flats in the October exercise were the first launched under the new classification system of Standard, Plus and Prime flats – with choicier locations coming with more subsidies to maintain affordability but also with stricter restrictions and subsidy clawbacks for fairness.

The Job Seeker Support Scheme announced in August will be launched in April next year, providing payouts over six months to those who have been retrenched, a recognition of economic headwinds and changing business strategies that have led to persistent layoffs in the last two years.

Another significant development was also the introduction of additional 10 weeks of shared parental leave (starting with six weeks in April) and the move to make mandatory four weeks of paternity leave. This, coupled with the fact that all employers must fairly consider requests for flexible work arrangements from Dec 1, could help shape a new compact around work and families.

Here’s to a better 2025 for all of us.