China’s push to reduce or cease exports of some critical materials such as germanium and gallium to the United States last year is already having an impact on their trade, while a potential expansion of such restrictions could serve as leverage for Beijing in tariff negotiations with the administration of president-elect Donald Trump.
According to customs data released on Monday, China has already stopped exporting wrought and unwrought antimony metal – a material critical to the military sector – to all countries since October, including the United States, its largest buyer.
Yet, due to a surge in shipments during the first nine months of 2024, China’s antimony exports to the US saw a year-on-year increase of 20.98 per cent, to 379,720kg (837,139 pounds), and the export value increased by 108.87 per cent to US$7.44 million.
“There is a risk that China might expand its export restrictions on critical materials in the near term,” said Ellie Saklatvala, head of non-ferrous pricing at Argus Media, an independent provider of energy and commodity price benchmarks.
China already published regulations concerning export controls of dual-use items in November, which she said could encompass a wide range of products, depending on how the restrictions are implemented.
“In the short-term, it will be very difficult for the US to significantly reduce its reliance on China for critical minerals – it usually takes many years and huge investments to develop new supply sources,” she said. “The situation might create some leverage in negotiations with the US, but it is a highly complex issue, and the US is unlikely to give way easily.”