The Japanese economy could lose about 1.49 trillion yen (US$9.59 billion) over the next year if travellers from mainland China continue to avoid Japan over a row that has derailed the growth in arrivals seen earlier this year, an economist at the Tokyo-based Nomura Research Institute has projected.
Kiuchi’s figure was based on an estimated 25 per cent decline in the number of mainland Chinese visitors over the next 12 months, in line with the decline seen in 2012 when Beijing issued a similar call following the Japanese government’s purchase of three of the disputed Diaoyu Islands – known as the Senkakus in Japan – in the East China Sea.
Kiuchi also estimated a loss of 290 billion yen over the next year due to a reduction in the number of travellers arriving from Hong Kong.
“This would result in a significant economic impact,” he said in a research note issued on Tuesday.
The diplomatic row appears to have already had a ripple effect on tourism, as Chinese airlines recorded about 491,000 cancellations of tickets to Japan from Saturday to Monday, according to a veteran aviation analyst.
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