US President Donald Trump’s green light for Nvidia to sell H200 artificial intelligence (AI) chips in China signals a calculated shift to export older technology, according to analysts who see the move as aiming to fortify the US market share while dampening China’s urgency for self-reliance.
But some predict an ongoing policy tug of war in the US between advocates of this week’s relaxation and those who prefer continued tight restrictions on hi-tech gear shipped to China.
Trump said on Monday that the US would permit Nvidia to ship its H200 chips to approved customers in China, under conditions allowing for continued strong national security, and that 25 per cent would be “paid” to the US. The policy will apply to other chipmakers, such as AMD and Intel, but excludes Nvidia’s cutting-edge Blackwell and Rubin series.
The decision “marks a return to the ‘sliding scale’ approach”, which serves the purpose of exporting older-generation US technology to reduce incentives for Chinese domestic innovation while maintaining American dominance, according to Chim Lee, a senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit market research firm.
Meanwhile, the Financial Times on Tuesday reported that Beijing was set to limit access to H200 chips, despite Trump’s shift. Citing two sources, it said buyers would probably have to go through an approval process.
Some analysts see Trump’s move as further easing trade tensions following high-level talks in October, and there are expectations that the US will still hold back its most advanced technology while Chinese buyers buy reserves of whatever AI chips are allowed.
“Assuming the Chinese government is OK with the imports, the return of US-designed AI chips in the Chinese market could trigger yet another wave of stockpiling,” Lee said, noting that the Chinese technology sector previously stockpiled in anticipation of the Trump administration’s intensified chip controls.