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Will the ceasefire bring peace to Lebanon?

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At the last minute

Even if the ceasefire is only a reprieve for now it is still important, emphasises Ilta-Sanomat:

“For Lebanon, the ceasefire comes at the last minute. If no agreement is reached or if it doesn’t hold, Lebanon could collapse as a state. … The ceasefire is a temporary solution because it will last 60 days, as was announced in the run-up to the agreement. Pessimistic observers see it as a brief respite. But that is also a good thing. The suffering continues. Hundreds of thousands of Lebanese are living in makeshift shelters, tents and even on the streets among the rubble. It’s a hard fate in the cold and rain of the approaching winter.”

No long-term solution without Iran

Reaching an agreement with Hezbollah simply isn’t sufficient, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung writes:

“On paper, Israel had already been assured by UN Resolution 1701 that Hezbollah would keep out of its border area. But the Shiite militia couldn’t care less about that and brazenly positioned its missile arsenal under the noses of UN observers. … A long-term solution? That would only be possible in Tehran. But the regime there is hardly going to voluntarily give up the regional leverage that shadow armies like Hezbollah give it.”

Winners, losers and rubble

La Stampa takes a closer look at the deal:

“Beirut breathes a sigh of relief, Gaza sinks into the abyss. The ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon leaves winners, losers and rubble. The course of Donald Trump, who called on Benjamin Netanyahu to end the war before his inauguration on 20 January, is winning out. ‘King Bibi’ will receive his reward: the green light for new settlements in the West Bank the size of which will depend on his skills as a negotiator and manipulator. … Hezbollah will be forced to retreat to the north, behind the Litani River. But it will retain a last remnant of its missile arsenal and preserve its prestige in Lebanon’s political balance.”

Israel only appearing to be conciliatory

The deal is a farewell gift to US President Joe Biden, says eldiario.es:

“The agreement now reached is similar to the UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of 2006, which failed to bring peace. … Israel is clear on the fact that it cannot achieve a definitive victory right now. … The deal also has to do with Joe Biden. The US president wants to end his term in office with a positive outcome and is exerting sustained pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu. … The latter knows that it is in his interest to appear conciliatory in order to secure the support of the US. Otherwise, Biden could end up allowing the UN Security Council to pass a resolution that restricts Israel’s ability to react to future developments in Lebanon.”

One war less – but will that help Gaza?

The ceasefire is a rare bit of good news in global affairs, writes The Economist:

“A regional war that seemed to be inexorably growing will now shrink. American officials used to say the way to end the crisis in Lebanon was to get a deal in Gaza. Now they hope the Lebanon deal will help solve Gaza instead. … For more than a year, Hezbollah insisted it would not stop fighting Israel until Israel stopped fighting in Gaza. Israel has now broken the link between the two fronts. That will take some of the pressure off its overstretched army. By ending one war, Mr Netanyahu may make it easier to continue the other.”

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