Europe Braces for a New Trump Era, Uncertain About What It Means

As Donald J. Trump took the oath of office in Washington on Monday, the crowd at a jam-packed party held by Ukrainian business groups in Davos, Switzerland, intently watched the ceremony on huge screens.

The event, on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum’s annual conference, seemed to be a display of enthusiasm for the returned American president. Speakers praised Mr. Trump and predicted that he would be a valuable partner for Ukraine in its war against Russia, despite his criticism of U.S. spending on the military effort. Waiters served mini cheeseburgers on red-and-blue buns (“American food,” attendees whispered). A few people applauded at the end.

Yet the apparent optimism was a thin veneer over deep uncertainty.

“We expect President Trump to surprise us, but we do not know what the surprise will be,” Andy Hunder, president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine, said at the party.

Mr. Trump’s return to the White House has plunged Europe’s business leaders and policymakers into a precarious era, and officials have been bracing for it behind the scenes. The European Commission — the European Union’s executive arm — formed a never-officially-announced group, sometimes colloquially referred to as a “Trump task force,” which spent much of 2024 working on possible responses to changes to American trade and foreign policy.

There is almost no aspect of European policy that Mr. Trump does not seem poised to upend. He is threatening to impose sweeping tariffs and is pressing for much heftier European spending on defense. Two of his first acts as president were to withdraw from the Paris climate agreements and the World Health Organization.

How he will adjust America’s stance toward Ukraine is one of the biggest questions: During his campaign, he pledged to end the war on his first day in office, though that timeline has crept back and he has not said how.