US midterms: will Trump lose control of Congress?

The US midterms, in which a new House of Representatives and a third of the Senate will be elected, are taking place today. According to the polls, the Democrats might win a majority in one or even both chambers of Congress, making it more difficult for President Donald Trump to push through his policies. Commentators discuss the ramifications.

Election will not end the division

Göteborgs-Posten voices concern about the deep divisions in US society:

“Trump has caused more instability than any other president in the modern era. At the same time, he is a symptom of deep-seated problems in American society, which probably won't disappear when he goes. Today's election is unlikely to change that. However, it may serve as a necessary reminder that US democracy is greater than any single president – no matter how megalomaniacal.”

Delo hopes the Trump era will soon be a thing of the past:

“His reign has plunged the established world order into chaos and, paradoxically, weakened the global significance and role of the US. The inviolability of borders, trade liberalisation and normality are now nothing more than a distant memory. They have been replaced by wars, territorial claims, tariffs and hate speech. It would be in the interest of the whole world if efforts towards peace were to be united, energy prices were to return to a range that does not fuel inflation, the ill-fated tariff wars were to end, and the rhetoric were to return to a level that was once the norm.”

Testing Trumpism

Donald Trump has profoundly changed the social makeup of the Republican Party, website Liberal points out:

“A party that once identified with the free market, the middle class and white voters in the suburbs has gained influence among the working class and made inroads into social and ethnic groups that had been considered a sure thing for the Democrats for decades. … We'll find out whether Trumpism is mainly about Donald Trump himself or whether it has developed into a lasting electoral alliance of the American right. If the Republicans manage to maintain a large part of this alliance even without the same candidate, it will mean a profound change has occurred in US politics. He [Trump] will have triggered a political shift that may endure even after he is gone.”

Democrats need to address other issues

Le Figaro argues that the Democrats should champion the interests of the public more vigorously, rather than merely fighting against Trump:

“The Democrats cannot confine themselves to constantly attacking Trump. They must also address voters' concerns regarding the cost of living and futile wars. Because even if he ends up governing with a minority, there will be no fundamental change in the 47th President's style and policies. He will continue to govern by decree and by tweet with the increasing lack of restraint he already exhibited during the election campaign. And we can count ourselves lucky if he doesn't drop a nuclear bomb on Iran, as his former supporter Tucker Carlson has predicted.”

Consequences for the whole world

NRC says the outcome will have far-reaching consequences globally:

“Trump has little regard for international norms and has launched an illegal war, with repercussions that go far beyond the Middle East. This has weakened the US's position on the world stage and made the world a less secure place. As a result, fundamental questions hang over these elections. Can Trump continue his pursuit of an international order in which power clearly takes precedence over rules, and institutions crumble under pressure from the major powers? Will Europe soon see some semblance of the old alliance restored in Congress again, or will the two continents drift further apart?”

Will he contest the result?

Sme fears that the US President will not accept defeat:

“The biggest question is not whether the Democrats will win, or what their share of the vote will be (although that is certainly important), but how the state authorities and the few remaining relatively sensible Republicans will react to Trump's view of the election result. Let us be cautiously optimistic and assume that Trump has already bitten off more than he can chew with his obvious efforts not only to manipulate the election result, but to annul it outright. Explaining this to him, however, is futile: he himself is absolutely convinced that he will win everywhere. ... And that he enjoys the unwavering support of the American people.”

Factor in resistance within the party

Konfront warns that a numerical majority for the Democrats in the Senate won't automatically translate into a change of course:

“If the Democratic Party were to secure a narrow majority in the upper house, but that majority existed only on paper due to internal party divisions, it would have disastrous consequences. And before anyone thinks that party interests take precedence over everything else and that such a scenario won't happen, they should take a close look at the current House of Representatives. Over the past two years, a razor-thin majority held by the Republican Party would have made it possible to pass legislation, albeit not without a struggle. However, this has failed spectacularly on several occasions due to resistance from ultra-conservative factions within the party.”

America's heartland feels betrayed

The election will be decided in the Midwest, writes Revista 22:

“In October, Trump launched a whirlwind campaign in these states, promising all kinds of things while showing no intention of making any significant changes to his policies. On the contrary, he's convinced that the golden age of the US economy has already begun and that everyone will reap the benefits. The Democrats are delighted by such statements, given the reality of the situation. It gives them a better chance of victory. It's not that voters in the Midwest have rediscovered their love for the Democrats. Many say in polls that they don't think anything would change if the Democrats came to power. But they are deeply disappointed and feel betrayed by the Republicans – and by Trump in particular.”

Already governing by decree

Maxim Suchkov, an international relations scholar specialised in American affairs, argues in Kommersant that an electoral defeat for the Republicans would not be all that disastrous for Trump:

“Even with a loyal Congress at his disposal, Trump prefers to push through important decisions via so-called executive orders. Since January 2025, he has issued more than 290 of them. Incidentally Bill Clinton, who governed under the conditions of a hostile Congress, took a similar approach: he issued 364 executive orders during his eight years in office. For presidents, scoring political points and demonstrating immediate effectiveness is more important than consistent policies.”

Nothing to be proud of

There's hardly anything good to be said about Trump's performance on fulfilling his campaign pledges, news website Öt.hu writes:

“Contrary to his promises, the president has not really boosted the US economy, reduced national debt, or brought back a large part of the American industry that had been relocated abroad. And he has certainly not brought about world peace. And despite his bombastic promises he has not drained the swamp in Washington either. ... Indeed, it seems that President Trump himself has become the new master of the swamp in Washington, and his unpredictable and often irrational decisions have further exacerbated both the division within American society and the crisis in domestic politics.”

Midterms a catalyst

The midterm elections could make Trump even more unpredictable regardless of the outcome, warns political scientist Dominykas Kaminskas in the business magazine IQ:

“The Democratic Party lacks both a clear vision and high-profile leaders. ... The only thing that actually unites them at present is their opposition to Donald Trump. ... The midterm elections will not limit Trump's power, regardless of the outcome. However the additional pressure he will face afterwards will greatly provoke the US President and prompt him to adopt an even more aggressive approach. It is therefore crucial for Lithuania and Europe to secure the support of the US Congress in the coming times.”

Acid test for democracy

Things could get very tricky if Trump refuses to accept a defeat, political scientist Liudas Dapkus observes in Delfi:

“What happens if the Republicans lose control of the House of Representatives? Why would this president accept such an election result when he can yell about stolen votes, falsified electoral protocols and conspirators on the electoral commissions? ... This time, moreover, the president has the entire executive branch at his disposal and benefits from a far more loyal political environment. ... Russian President Boris Yeltsin resolved his conflict with parliament in 1993 with the help of tanks. While the US President doesn't have such powers, there are other ways to trigger political chaos.”

Europe hoping for a blocking effect

A Democratic victory would be the best outcome for the EU, Ilta-Sanomat explains:

“In recent weeks, Trump has once again been currying favour with Russian President Vladimir Putin and putting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a tight spot. ... A clear victory for the Democrats in the midterms would give the party greater scope to obstruct Trump's policy on Ukraine. Their influence will depend on whether they manage to win the House of Representatives, the Senate or both. Regardless of the midterm results, as president Trump will continue to determine US foreign policy, but even a slight curbing of his influence would be good news for Ukraine and Europe.”

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