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Opinion | Why China’s Ukraine peace efforts are pivoting to the Global South

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The war in Ukraine took a new turn on August 6, when Ukrainian forces launched a surprising offensive against the Russian region of Kursk. This bold move, aimed at creating a buffer zone, was intended to force Russia to give up its territorial claims in any future peace negotiations.

However, the immediate consequence was Russia’s withdrawal from any ongoing peace talks, escalating the conflict further. Amid such a complex and increasingly volatile situation, China’s role has come under the spotlight, particularly through the efforts of its special envoy Li Hui.

On August 27, Li held a press conference to conclude his fourth round of shuttle diplomacy. His latest diplomatic mission, which took him to Brazil, South Africa and Indonesia between July 28 and August 7, coincided with Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory.

Observing the evolving battlefield dynamics, Li’s press briefing was scheduled during US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit to Beijing for the fifth US-China strategic dialogue. The timing of these events was telling, arguably highlighting the delicate balancing act China is attempting to strike between its diplomatic efforts and its strategic interests.

During the press briefing, Li made a pointed but veiled critique of Western support for Ukraine. He expressed concern that the West’s lack of conditions for Ukraine to strike Russian territory with Western-supplied weapons was exacerbating the conflict, and emphasised that recent developments on the battlefield confirmed these fears.

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