Leaders from 21 Pacific economies gathering this week in Lima for the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation conference arrive with questions on the future of multilateralism and the spectre of US president-elect Donald Trump looming over the event.
This year’s meeting, with the theme “Empower. Include. Grow.” – a slogan decided long before the November 5 US presidential election – comes as “America first” Trump threatens to pull out of or seriously disempower multilateral institutions, track a path on global trade that is far from inclusive and prioritise US growth at the expense of others.
For some, this period has eerie echoes of the 1930s when Washington threw up huge trade barriers that led to widespread retaliation and a global trade war, with devastating implications for the global economy. Trump, a self-avowed “tariff man”, has threatened to impose 60 per cent tariffs on all imports from China and 10 per cent on those from all other nations.
“I do think we’re heading more into a 1930s situation, No 1. No 2, with respect to global organisations like Apec, like the WTO, the G20, I think we saw he did not have a lot of respect for these kinds of organizations,” said Nicole Bivens Collinson, a former chief negotiator in the office of the US trade representative, recalling Trump’s first term.
The global trading system has been eroding for decades but Trump could accentuate strains, Bivens Collinson, now a managing principal with the Sandler, Travis & Rosenberg law firm, said.
“It’s more disdain. So does he seek to dismantle them? I mean, you can’t dismantle the WTO any more than right now, it’s dysfunctional. On Apec, he’ll probably send some low-level person to them” in the future.
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