What led to Mark Carney’s landslide victory in becoming Canada’s next prime minister?

Former central banker Mark Carney will succeed Justin Trudeau as Canada’s prime minister, becoming the first person with no political experience to lead the world’s ninth-largest economy.

On Sunday (Mar 9), the 59-year-old secured 86 per cent of ballots cast in the ruling Liberal Party’s leadership vote.

Among the main reasons why Carney won the race so decisively was United States President Donald Trump’s recent tariff war against Canada, said analysts.

The Liberals had been trailing behind the opposition Conservative Party by a wide margin in polls before Trump’s return to the White House in January. 

Trump has since slapped 25 per cent duties on imports from Canada, although he has delayed some of these tariffs until Apr 2. On top of that, he has repeatedly taunted that he would annex Canada as the 51st US state. 

In the lead up to the Liberal leadership contest, Carney portrayed himself as the only person prepared to handle Trump.   

He supported dollar-for-dollar retaliatory tariffs against the US and a strategy to diversify trade partners and boost investments.  

He reiterated those key points in his victory speech, pledging to protect Canada’s economy and win the trade war, as well as accusing Trump of “attacking Canadian workers, families and businesses”.

DIFFERENT FROM UNPOPULAR TRUDEAU 

Christopher Adams, adjunct professor of political studies at the University of Manitoba, noted: “The Liberals have been behind the Conservatives by 20 points for much of the year and a half, but things all changed in January with Trump’s tariffs, with Carney seen as a new face.”

The party is now statistically tied with the Conservatives, led by career politician Pierre Poilievre, in several polls.

Adams called Carney’s victory “quite a shocking” one, given how resoundingly he beat former finance minister Chrystia Freeland.

She had been seen as a frontrunner among the four candidates when the Liberals’ leadership race started in early January. It was triggered by current Prime Minister Trudeau’s announcement that he would step down after close to a decade in power, amid plummeting approval ratings.

“Freeland started out slowly with some poor interviews and (she) just seemed to be slipping,” Adams told CNA’s Asia First.

“And then Carney just picked up steam, in part because he had a message that was quite distinct from Trudeau, (who) was really quite unpopular.”

Daniel Beland, director of the McGill Institute for the Study of Canada, said Carney’s lack of political background – he has never served as a member of parliament or in cabinet – made it “easier to project a sense of change”.

He noted that Carney was not closely associated with Trudeau, as opposed to Freeland and Karina Gould. The latter resigned as a minister in Trudeau’s Cabinet to run in the election.

PROMINENT BANKING CAREER

Another important factor behind Carney’s win was his wealth of experience dealing with major crises, Beland told CNA938.

He had positioned himself as equipped to handle tumultuous times in Canada, citing his leadership at the Bank of Canada – where he was governor during the 2008 to 2009 financial crisis. He was also the Bank of England’s governor during the Brexit vote.

“Canada is facing (a crisis) right now in terms of (its) relationship with the Trump administration and in terms of tariffs, (and) also this rhetoric about Canada perhaps becoming the 51st state that Trump has been using for months now,” noted Beland.

He also said that with Trump’s return, the focus of Canadian politics changed from cost-of-living issues and taxation to who can stand up to the US president.

“That created some issues for the Conservative Party. It spent 18 months talking about the cost-of-living crisis and tax cuts and so forth.”

HOW WILL TRUMP REACT TO CARNEY?

Beland, who is also a political science professor at McGill University, pointed out that Carney’s victory speech emphasised the economy and the need to fight back against Trump.

He said: “This is really something that will be central to not just his prime ministership – and we don’t know how long it will last; it might be very short – but certainly, it will be central to his campaign as Liberal leader during the next federal election.”

Beland said dealing with Trump will be “central” to Carney’s prime ministership. His performance will be crucial to his campaign as Liberal leader in the upcoming election. 

Canada must hold a federal election by Oct 20.

However, Adams said Trump is likely to “just ignore” Carney’s ascension to prime minister.

“Maybe there (will be) some areas for shared conversations, but I don’t think there will be a huge difference,” he added.

“But we do know that Trudeau was a lightning rod for Trump. Trump was ridiculing him, calling him Governor Trudeau, not Prime Minister Trudeau, so I think that… having a different leader who won’t be a lightning rod for Trump’s anger… might help ease the conversation with the Americans.” 

ELECTIONS LIKELY TO BE CALLED SOON

The analysts said Carney, who will be sworn in as prime minister in the coming days, is likely to call an election within the next few weeks.

“It could mean an end of April or early May election … I think it’s quite likely that he will go for a spring election, and very quickly,” said Adams, who reiterated that the Liberals have caught up to the Conservatives in recent polls.

“We haven’t seen that in two years now, so this is a point of high popularity that (Carney and the Liberals might) want to take advantage of.”

Beland concurred that Carney could trigger elections as early as this month.

“I think we’ll have a campaign that (is) very passionate, a campaign about national unity, a campaign that will be quite patriotic.

“It would be a strange campaign too, because the leaders will criticise each other, take on each other, but also take on Trump at the same time … It will be, I think, a very, very tense and competitive campaign.”