With global attention fixed on the US and Iranian shipping blockades in the Strait of Hormuz and how many vessels have traversed the critically important waterway, a leading Chinese investment bank has been calculating the long-term gains and losses and how they could rewrite the global economic order.
The United States was on the horns of a dilemma over the strait that might herald an acceleration of Washington’s strategic retreat and its increasingly transactional relationships with other powers, Beijing-headquartered Citic Securities said in a report.
Comparing the situation to the “Suez moment” in the 1950s – when Britain lost control of the Suez Canal along with its global superpower status – Citic Securities analysts wrote on Saturday that a similarly consequential “Hormuz moment” could be a watershed for America’s global supremacy.
“The Suez moment marked the United Kingdom’s relinquishing of global power,” they said in the report published on Saturday, adding that the US was now “wedged” in the Strait of Hormuz, facing a challenge to its control of the waterway “and in search of a way out or forward”.
“This may well be a Hormuz moment from which we can draw several inferences about the evolution of the global order,” the report said.
Economic strength has long been a major realm of the wide-ranging rivalry between Beijing and Washington, with many scholars predicting that China could eclipse the US as the world’s largest economy in a decade.
The confusion and uncertainty faced by vessels and global supply chains as the result of blockades in the strait – a
choke point for global energy supplies – is increasing as the US-Israel war on Iran enters its eighth week, with the clock ticking on an uneasy ceasefire due to expire on Wednesday.
A transactional mindset towards America’s ties with China may become even more pronounced
On Friday, Iran declared it would allow non-military vessels to pass through the strait, but it reimposed shipping restrictions on Saturday, accusing Washington of “banditry”.