Bulgaria: what does Radev’s victory portend?

Flawed but not dangerous

For Club Z, it is unlikely that Bulgaria’s position within the EU will change:

“As far as our orientation in foreign policy is concerned, it’s all decided already, and even Radev’s pro-Russian remarks won’t change that. We are part of Europe’s inner circle and it would be almost impossible to remove us. … Bulgaria is in the EU, in Nato, in the Schengen Area and in the Eurozone, much more than can be said of Hungary and Romania, for example. It is, of course, possible that Radev, as future prime minister, will embarrass us in Brussels with the odd Russophile remark. … But it’s hard to imagine that he or any other Bulgarian politician will try to take centre stage at the heart of Europe and start playing the rebel.”

Brussels can’t afford another extortionist

Politiken is worried by Radev’s pro-Russian stance:

“Rumen Radev serves as a stark reminder that the EU has not yet overcome its difficulties when it comes to acting as a bulwark against Russian aggression. Crucial elections are scheduled in France and Poland next year. This calls for mechanisms to be put in place that give the EU greater geopolitical clout. More majority decisions would be a welcome development. We can’t afford any more geopolitical hostage dramas like those imposed by Viktor Orbán on the EU and Ukraine. … That would undermine the EU as an institution on the world stage.”

No enemy of democracy

Le Point offers reassurance:

“The fundamental difference between Radev and Orbán is the absence of an illiberal agenda. It took the Hungarian prime minister ten years to build up his power structure: to gain control of the press, bring the judiciary to heel and tailor the constitution to his own ideological battles. Rumen Radev, on the other hand, is promising to destroy the oligarchy, restore the rule of law and reform the judiciary. We can dismiss all this as empty words or worry that he too will avail himself of the deep-rooted corruption he claims to want to eliminate. But he doesn’t come across as a future autocrat. His opponent is the oligarchy – not democracy. At least for now.”

Stonewalling from Sofia

Radev could become a real thorn in Europe’s side, observes the Frankfurter Rundschau:

“The pro-Russian politician has repeatedly echoed the Kremlin’s narrative and left no doubt that under his leadership there will be no military aid for Ukraine. He is no second Viktor Orbán, but nor is he a fervent European. He will not block the EU with constant vetoes, but he will call many things into question and cause delays. At a time when Europe most needs resolve and the ability to act fast, it faces the prospect of scepticism and stonewalling from Sofia.”

This doesn’t bode well

This is bad news for Ukraine, laments La Repubblica:

“For Zelensky in particular, who during a visit to Sofia three years ago had a rather heated exchange with the then Bulgarian president, having Radev following Orbán is not good news. At least not as long as the current EU voting rules remain in place. But it’s not good news for Nato either, because Bulgaria’s geographical position gives it a highly significant role within the Alliance’s strategic architecture. Finally, viewed against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine (where Putin’s military and above all economic difficulties are mounting), the outcome of the Bulgarian election signals that the danger posed by Russian propaganda and disinformation remains very high.”

Borisov gone but his system remains

Bulgarians saw Radev as their only chance to get rid of Borisov, e-vestnik postulates:

“Radev’s pro-Russian majority in parliament does not reflect the actual balance of power in society. Until now, the defenders of Russia, the aggressor, had held around a third of the seats in parliament. Now, however, the desire of the majority of the population to oust Borisov has brought Radev victory. … Many who voted for him will soon be disappointed, but there will be no snap election any time soon. There is much to suggest that Radev will follow in Orbán’s footsteps and take his place alongside Fico in the European family. And that he will merely replace Borisov, rather than dismantling the system he created.”

Europe’s new vetoist

La Repubblica voices a fear:

“Bulgaria could become the new Hungary. At least in its role as a thorn in the side of the EU and as Putin’s ‘fifth column’. Rumen Radev, leader of the new ‘Progressive Bulgaria’ party – which is clearly sovereignist and pro-Russian in orientation – has emerged victorious from the parliamentary election. His stance was anti-Ukrainian from the start of his campaign. If Radev succeeds in forming a government, the greatest danger – one that has the EU on high alert – is that he will become a ‘veto man’, just like Orbán.”

A toothless Orbán

Rzeczpospolita editor-in-chief Bogusław Chrabota sees no cause for concern:

“Most European observers are calling Rumen Radev the new Viktor Orbán. Primarily because he likes to criticise Brussels and flirts with Russia. But it’s interesting that when asked, Radev describes himself as the Bulgarian Péter Magyar, even though it’s not entirely clear if this is just an PR trick aimed at distancing himself from a leader who is now associated with political defeat. … As prime minister, Radev might be a mild eurosceptic, but he will hardly rock the EU boat. A toothless Orbán.”

Successfully posing as a rebel

For Corriere della Sera, it’s clear how you win elections in Bulgaria:

“Radev rose to power on the back of his promise to fight corruption and the ‘mafia state’ that is hollowing out Europe’s poorest country. Despite having been a top-ranking politician for decades, he managed to rebrand himself as a rebel by riding the wave of anti-corruption protests that brought down the government in December – for the seventh time in five years. This campaign was actually spearheaded by the pro-European liberal party, which subsequently lost support after Radev blamed them for the high cost of living because they had argued in favour of introducing the euro.”