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More stringent domestic controls on the way
El País predicts there will be a change of course after 3 November:
“History shows that voters often punish the president’s party in mid-term elections. … This year, the Democrats are considered clear favourites to win the House of Representatives while the race for the Senate is too close to call. … Government oversight and accountability will then be far more frequent and stringent, and foreign policy decisions will become more complex. … Congress established the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency by law and it is the only body that can attach conditions to its budget or hold officials to account in the event of abuse. … On 3 November, Americans will decide a large part of Washington’s political agenda.”
The tale of the stolen election
Trump could attempt to undermine the legitimacy of the election result, US expert Lauric Henneton writes in Le Monde:
“While Trump may fail to overturn the election result, he could succeed in reviving the narrative of a stolen election. A narrative fuelled by images, social media, investigations, legal challenges, refused election certifications and judges – who are inevitably perceived as politically biased. … Trump is unlikely to be able to ‘steal’ the midterm elections. He could, however, attempt to convince millions of Americans that they were stolen from him, delegitimise the Democratic majority for two years, further erode electoral legitimacy, and turn 2028 into an election of revenge.”
EU weathering the storm
Radio Kommersant FM suspects Europe is pursuing the following strategy:
“One gets the impression that both Kyiv and the leaders of the key EU countries have, in effect, interfered in the US election campaign and, with their stance on Trump, are highlighting the failure of his policies towards Europe with the goal of bringing about a victory for the Democrats. It seems they are simply hoping to weather out the storm with this unpredictable politician who is inclined to make compromises with Moscow and wait until November 2028 in the hope that a Democratic candidate will win the next presidential election and the halcyon days of Joe Biden will return, when the US, Europe and Ukraine stood united against the Kremlin.”
Making voters believe Zelensky is the obstacle
Trump is targeting his own voter base with this announcement of a partial ceasefire, opposition news website Vot Tak believes:
“This ‘energy truce’ conveys the impression that the situation is under control, while the allegations against Zelensky will serve as an excuse should the measures fail to produce the desired result. Trump does not need to convince everyone that Ukraine is the cause of the crisis, his aim is more modest and easier to achieve – he wants to give a sufficient number of disgruntled Republican voters a reason to believe that he is trying to resolve the situation but that someone is standing in his way.”
Even more chaos after November 3?
A Republican defeat could lead to major upheavals in foreign policy, former World Bank economist István Dobozi explains in Népszabadság:
“If he suffers a crushing defeat, Trump might conclude that in the remaining time of his presidency he should no longer focus on minimising the short-term domestic costs, but rather on maximising his legacy in global politics. After 3 November, the US and the world could well wake up to a Trump who is politically weakened in the US and more unpredictable than ever, and whose foreign policy is focused on boosting his historical self-image. This could be particularly dangerous in the case of Iran.”