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US positive on Iran deal but talks still uncertain as ceasefire end nears

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WASHINGTON: The United States has expressed confidence that peace talks with Iran will go ahead in Pakistan, and a senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering joining, but significant uncertainty remained on Tuesday (Apr 21) as the end of a ceasefire loomed.

The two-week truce in the war that the US and Israel unleashed on Iran on Feb 28 was set to expire in the next day or two, although officials have given mixed messages on the precise timing.

A first session of talks 10 days ago produced no agreement and Tehran had been ruling out a second round this week, after the US refused to end its blockade of Iranian ports and seized an Iranian cargo ship.

But a Pakistani source involved in the discussions told Reuters there was momentum for talks to resume on Wednesday and US Vice President JD Vance was expected in Islamabad.

An Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran was “positively reviewing” its participation but stressed that it was waiting to see if its conditions would be met, including recognition of its right to enrich uranium.

The Pakistani source, who declined to be identified while discussing confidential diplomatic matters, said US President Donald Trump might attend, either in person or virtually, if a deal were to be signed.

OIL PRICE DOWN ON TALKS OPTIMISM

Oil prices eased around US$0.50 and stocks bounced back in Asia on expectations that peace talks will resume this week, although European stocks were flat. 

Oil prices had jumped around 6 per cent in Monday trading on doubts over the talks.

A senior Iranian military commander said on Tuesday that Iran was ready to deliver an “immediate and decisive response” to any renewed hostility, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said, while Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, Reza Amiri Moghadam, in an X post said any nation with a great civilisation would not negotiate under threat or force.

Top negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf accused Trump late on Monday of increasing pressure through the blockade, saying he was deluded in seeking to “turn the negotiating table into a table of submission” or justify renewed warmongering.

Iran’s army said an Iranian tanker had entered its territorial waters from the Arabian Sea on Monday with help from the Iranian Navy, despite what it described as repeated warnings and threats from the US naval task force.

Trump wants an agreement that would prevent further oil price rises and stock market shocks, but has insisted Iran cannot have the means to develop a nuclear weapon. 

He wants Iran to give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which can, if further enriched, be used for a nuclear warhead.

Tehran hopes to leverage its control of the Strait of Hormuz to strike a deal that averts a restart of the war and eases sanctions while retaining more of its nuclear programme, which it says is for peaceful purposes.

Trump initially announced the ceasefire would last two weeks from the evening of Apr 7 in Washington, though he has lately suggested it runs until the evening of Apr 22, effectively an extra 24 hours.

 A Pakistani source involved in the talks said it would expire at 8pm Eastern time (8am, Thursday, Singapore time) on Wednesday, or 3.30am on Thursday in Iran.

IRAN DEMANDS RELEASE OF VESSEL, CREW

US Central Command said the ship impounded on Sunday by the US had violated the US blockade and failed to heed warnings repeated for six hours.

China, the main buyer of Iranian crude, has expressed concern over the “forced interception”. Iran demanded the immediate release of the vessel, its crew and their families.

Thousands of people have been killed by US-Israeli strikes on Iran and in an Israeli invasion of Lebanon conducted in parallel since the war began on Feb 28. 

The war triggered a historic shock to global energy supplies and fears that prolonged conflict could push the global economy to the brink of recession.

The US blockade of Iranian ports has infuriated Tehran, prompting it to maintain its own restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz, which typically handles roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas supply. 

Mediator Pakistan has lobbied Washington to end its blockade.

“THEY’RE GOING TO NEGOTIATE,” TRUMP SAYS

Trump said on Monday that Iran was “going to negotiate, and hopefully they’ll make a fair deal, and they’ll build their country back up, but they will not have – when they do it – they will not have a nuclear weapon”.

Pakistan has been preparing to host the talks despite uncertainty about whether they would go ahead. Nearly 20,000 security personnel have been deployed across Islamabad, officials said.

Trump warned on Sunday that the US would destroy every bridge and power plant in Iran if it rejected his terms, continuing a recent pattern of such threats.

Iran has said that if the US were to attack its civilian infrastructure, it would strike power stations and desalination plants in its Gulf Arab neighbours.

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Fox News’ “Hannity” programme that a deal was close, “thanks to the success of the military operation and his (Trump’s) hardline negotiating style”.

“And if not, the president, as commander in chief, still has a number of options at his disposal that he’s unafraid to use.”

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